Eh, I'm not saying this doesn't happen anyway, but Rome tried the same thing and eventually could not pay the army. It all fell apart from there.
Everything in a stable society comes from a stable currency and economy. It comes from trust. If people with capital stop trusting that our government will pay back its debt in "good faith," then it's over. It really is. The implosion will start with the bond market. That 10 year yield is like the readout in a nuclear power plant -- as it rises, we are getting closer to a meltdown. A few months ago, big players were saying that if the 10 yr touched 5.0 yield we were looking at something worse than 2008. That's how close we are.
The biggest reason for American power is because of trust in our economy and currency. By being frivolous with the dollars we have today, we are endangering our security in the future, and our enemies -- particularly China -- absolutely understand this. This is why their quiet warfare against us is almost entirely economic.
Europe is way advanced on us in this area, and it shows. They figured out recently that they can't even get together 30,000 troops to "keep the peace" in Ukraine if a deal was reached and the EU had to put the boots on the ground. They are sitting ducks, because they wasted their resources on frivolous nonsense and vote-buying welfare programs.
I am thus far very disappointed in the GOP's handling of this budget exercise. They are supposed to be the ones that get it, and they are cynically throwing away their patriotic duty to preserve our future in favor of whoring for a few votes for the next election.
They will lose anyway, and we will lose, because the Democrats will push the gas on spending even harder. They truly have no idea about things like the bond market and how inflation works. Most of them really believe that we can just "print" money at the mint and use it like it was create out of thin air. They believe this! They don't understand the systemwide implications, because they know nothing about economics.
It was a good rant of common sense. The United States being the world police with the "best millions in the world" has made enemies around the world.
Many young people, Millennials and Gen Z, are asking "what is the point of even working if a regular job can't even support you? And you can't enjoy life even a little?" The birth rate in the US continues to get worse. Leaving aside the issues of the modern dating scene, the cost of buying a home on top of everything else makes it impossible unless you're in the top 10%-20% of income earners.
The United States economy is horrible. No political party wants solve the debt problem.
It's mostly part-time and gig work. It's mostly bad pay with low or no benefits. That's why thr more ambitious millenials and gen z work to turn side hustle into businesses. All of the jobs I have worked have been part-time or gig jobs that gave me no retirement or health benefits.
we don't have the best military sir. A navy that crashes into reefs, can't put out a ship fire while in port, and loses fighter jets during basic evasive maneuvers. An army that can't beat 3rd world countries nor secure our border. Not to mention a supply chain completely reliant on the goodwill of our next potential adversary to function.
Personally I'm torn between fruitlessly hoping we would finally get spending under control versus cheering a speed run to 100 trillion in debt for the sardonic joy of it all.
Not to mention the military is 4th generation kinetic warfare. We're in 5th generation warfare now that is primarily psychological, cyber,, and economic. It's more subtle and deadly than 4th gen warfare.
Amen. This is what I voted for. Or pay a subscription for at least.
This coulda been titled, “BNPL Nation” or “Klarna, Take the Wheel” or “Put it on the Underhill Bill,” for a deep cut.
Who knew 21st century monetary policy would be some giant globalist Ponzi scheme, with the inevitable bank runs always ending with bombs raining down on brown people?
I like almost all of what Trump's doing, but we've seen zero receipts (except maybe on tho border). DOGE seems to have lost its mojo without making a real dent, and now we have this big, beautiful spending fiasco. Nothing will change unless we stop spending. The rule isn't "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" (unfortunately included in our founding docs). It's Locke's "Life, liberty and property." You can't have the firat two without property, and you don'tt have property if you've got a mortgage.
Everyone's idea of spending reduction is to cut programs that they don't benefit from. A pie chart of US government spending reveals that all but a tiny wedge is effectively untouchable. So the only answer that doesn't have checks bouncing is to increase the amount of money in circulation. And because supply and demand applies to money just like every other commodity, when there's more of it and the "more" exceeds the rate at which more goods and services are produced, inflation results.
A faction once wanted a flat tax. They have it already in the form of the shrinking value of cash. It hits all equally as a pecentage of dollars and dollar denominated instruments. Those in the bottom quintile of earnings experience it more painfully than the rest of us because there's little cushion for them but the impact is uniform.
So the smart investor looks at cash like an ice cube melting in his hand. Buy tangible assets that can be sold later and whose eventual price will be adjusted upward by inflation. If those assets produce cash flow, use that to buy more tangible assets. Stay as illiquid as possible.
Yes, except in my view the opportunity to be a smart investor has been corrupted by Wall Street and it's capture of all of our institutions. Consequently more than half of citizens have no assets and little hope of buying any, so your investment advice, while sound, is little more than whistling past the graveyard.
Live on less than you make. Find a side hustle. Live with a four year old cellphone, ignoring the appeal to "upgrade for free" since you pay for the upgrade under the theory of no free lunch. Consumption is the enemy of wealth.
"One way or another, we’ll keep printing more money and relying on the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency to futilely prop up our standard of living." - exactly. MMT isn't right as a theory, it is right as a description. The thing to look for is not the permabear 'doomcup' but the signs of a shift in the underlying system. The US altering the backing of the dollar in some way. The dollar, petrodollar, and shadow dollar are too embedded. There are big problems, but I think the least dirty shirt continues to hold. The Sterling had a peer replacement in it's twilight. The dollar does not (for all gold, btc, etc, none are close to a peer). So I think the dollar stays, but it will have to anoint a prince or two as a means of backing/supplementing the dollar. It will probably be a reactionary move as another currency/store of value gains strength.
Chris, no doubt the downgrade was overdue, and given pervasive TDS, sure perhaps the timing was political. But, come on, the notion that this administration is even remotely serious about reining in spending. Please. DOGE was not a budget-cutting exercise; rather, it was an ideological purge of woke and DEI elements. And the “big beautiful bill” and increased defense budget are the opposite of fiscal responsibility.
Like I said, at least this administration is TALKING about it. The Biden administration didn't even do that. On the contrary, it was a blitz to spend as much as possible before he left office. And I don't disagree on the BBB which is why, as I note, we're heading in the direction of printing no matter what.
I bought a modest amount of a ETF that is Short US 7-10 year Treasuries, the idea being that as Treasuries become less attractive, yields are going to go up and hence the ETF will go up in value. But now I think this is a dumb idea - I think the Fed will never allow yields to go up - they will just print and buy Treasuries as necessary to keep the nominal yield down. This will be at the cost of inflation, but who cares? They can just endlessly rejigger the inflation calculation and exclude inconvenient goods to always come up with some number around 2-3% even though the actual inflation we experience will be higher. Therefore I am thinking of selling the ETF (it has basically tread water since I bought it) because by this argument it will never appreciate in value. Does that seem like a valid argument to you?
We remain in the globalist's grip. As long as we cooperate and embrace their warped and ruinous vision and policies, we get a pass on reality. When we wake up as a nation from the propaganda induced coma, we get what was long overdue. A reality check based on truth.
I am dumbfounded by those who complain about inflation yet attack Trump, et al, for trying to eliminate spending where there is less marginal benefit. It reminds me of the Huey Long quote about taxation. I'll adapt it for spending:
Don't cut you, don't cut me, cut that guy behind the tree.
As long as we have the best military in the world - the value of our dollar does not matter. If anyone wants to challenge us - we blow them up.
Although that is not the grown up answer, we should be more responsible
Eh, I'm not saying this doesn't happen anyway, but Rome tried the same thing and eventually could not pay the army. It all fell apart from there.
Everything in a stable society comes from a stable currency and economy. It comes from trust. If people with capital stop trusting that our government will pay back its debt in "good faith," then it's over. It really is. The implosion will start with the bond market. That 10 year yield is like the readout in a nuclear power plant -- as it rises, we are getting closer to a meltdown. A few months ago, big players were saying that if the 10 yr touched 5.0 yield we were looking at something worse than 2008. That's how close we are.
The biggest reason for American power is because of trust in our economy and currency. By being frivolous with the dollars we have today, we are endangering our security in the future, and our enemies -- particularly China -- absolutely understand this. This is why their quiet warfare against us is almost entirely economic.
Europe is way advanced on us in this area, and it shows. They figured out recently that they can't even get together 30,000 troops to "keep the peace" in Ukraine if a deal was reached and the EU had to put the boots on the ground. They are sitting ducks, because they wasted their resources on frivolous nonsense and vote-buying welfare programs.
I am thus far very disappointed in the GOP's handling of this budget exercise. They are supposed to be the ones that get it, and they are cynically throwing away their patriotic duty to preserve our future in favor of whoring for a few votes for the next election.
They will lose anyway, and we will lose, because the Democrats will push the gas on spending even harder. They truly have no idea about things like the bond market and how inflation works. Most of them really believe that we can just "print" money at the mint and use it like it was create out of thin air. They believe this! They don't understand the systemwide implications, because they know nothing about economics.
Sorry for the rant.
It was a good rant of common sense. The United States being the world police with the "best millions in the world" has made enemies around the world.
Many young people, Millennials and Gen Z, are asking "what is the point of even working if a regular job can't even support you? And you can't enjoy life even a little?" The birth rate in the US continues to get worse. Leaving aside the issues of the modern dating scene, the cost of buying a home on top of everything else makes it impossible unless you're in the top 10%-20% of income earners.
The United States economy is horrible. No political party wants solve the debt problem.
I look forward to the implosion.
The new thing is part time pay for full time work. Very common these days.
It's mostly part-time and gig work. It's mostly bad pay with low or no benefits. That's why thr more ambitious millenials and gen z work to turn side hustle into businesses. All of the jobs I have worked have been part-time or gig jobs that gave me no retirement or health benefits.
we don't have the best military sir. A navy that crashes into reefs, can't put out a ship fire while in port, and loses fighter jets during basic evasive maneuvers. An army that can't beat 3rd world countries nor secure our border. Not to mention a supply chain completely reliant on the goodwill of our next potential adversary to function.
Personally I'm torn between fruitlessly hoping we would finally get spending under control versus cheering a speed run to 100 trillion in debt for the sardonic joy of it all.
Not to mention the military is 4th generation kinetic warfare. We're in 5th generation warfare now that is primarily psychological, cyber,, and economic. It's more subtle and deadly than 4th gen warfare.
Amen. This is what I voted for. Or pay a subscription for at least.
This coulda been titled, “BNPL Nation” or “Klarna, Take the Wheel” or “Put it on the Underhill Bill,” for a deep cut.
Who knew 21st century monetary policy would be some giant globalist Ponzi scheme, with the inevitable bank runs always ending with bombs raining down on brown people?
LOL the Underhill bill. Best movie of all time.
I keep saying to anyone who will listen, governments can print money, but they can't print prosperity.
Moody's is the mainstream media of notation agencies. Always late. Never wrong.
I like almost all of what Trump's doing, but we've seen zero receipts (except maybe on tho border). DOGE seems to have lost its mojo without making a real dent, and now we have this big, beautiful spending fiasco. Nothing will change unless we stop spending. The rule isn't "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" (unfortunately included in our founding docs). It's Locke's "Life, liberty and property." You can't have the firat two without property, and you don'tt have property if you've got a mortgage.
Everyone's idea of spending reduction is to cut programs that they don't benefit from. A pie chart of US government spending reveals that all but a tiny wedge is effectively untouchable. So the only answer that doesn't have checks bouncing is to increase the amount of money in circulation. And because supply and demand applies to money just like every other commodity, when there's more of it and the "more" exceeds the rate at which more goods and services are produced, inflation results.
A faction once wanted a flat tax. They have it already in the form of the shrinking value of cash. It hits all equally as a pecentage of dollars and dollar denominated instruments. Those in the bottom quintile of earnings experience it more painfully than the rest of us because there's little cushion for them but the impact is uniform.
So the smart investor looks at cash like an ice cube melting in his hand. Buy tangible assets that can be sold later and whose eventual price will be adjusted upward by inflation. If those assets produce cash flow, use that to buy more tangible assets. Stay as illiquid as possible.
Yes, except in my view the opportunity to be a smart investor has been corrupted by Wall Street and it's capture of all of our institutions. Consequently more than half of citizens have no assets and little hope of buying any, so your investment advice, while sound, is little more than whistling past the graveyard.
Live on less than you make. Find a side hustle. Live with a four year old cellphone, ignoring the appeal to "upgrade for free" since you pay for the upgrade under the theory of no free lunch. Consumption is the enemy of wealth.
And it's all being politicized to the max by The Beltway Mafia for their financial greed.
Moody’s LoL
Good rant Chris. I think how this ends will be known soon; it is part of the Fourth Turning, so buckle up buttercup.
"One way or another, we’ll keep printing more money and relying on the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency to futilely prop up our standard of living." - exactly. MMT isn't right as a theory, it is right as a description. The thing to look for is not the permabear 'doomcup' but the signs of a shift in the underlying system. The US altering the backing of the dollar in some way. The dollar, petrodollar, and shadow dollar are too embedded. There are big problems, but I think the least dirty shirt continues to hold. The Sterling had a peer replacement in it's twilight. The dollar does not (for all gold, btc, etc, none are close to a peer). So I think the dollar stays, but it will have to anoint a prince or two as a means of backing/supplementing the dollar. It will probably be a reactionary move as another currency/store of value gains strength.
Chris, no doubt the downgrade was overdue, and given pervasive TDS, sure perhaps the timing was political. But, come on, the notion that this administration is even remotely serious about reining in spending. Please. DOGE was not a budget-cutting exercise; rather, it was an ideological purge of woke and DEI elements. And the “big beautiful bill” and increased defense budget are the opposite of fiscal responsibility.
Like I said, at least this administration is TALKING about it. The Biden administration didn't even do that. On the contrary, it was a blitz to spend as much as possible before he left office. And I don't disagree on the BBB which is why, as I note, we're heading in the direction of printing no matter what.
I bought a modest amount of a ETF that is Short US 7-10 year Treasuries, the idea being that as Treasuries become less attractive, yields are going to go up and hence the ETF will go up in value. But now I think this is a dumb idea - I think the Fed will never allow yields to go up - they will just print and buy Treasuries as necessary to keep the nominal yield down. This will be at the cost of inflation, but who cares? They can just endlessly rejigger the inflation calculation and exclude inconvenient goods to always come up with some number around 2-3% even though the actual inflation we experience will be higher. Therefore I am thinking of selling the ETF (it has basically tread water since I bought it) because by this argument it will never appreciate in value. Does that seem like a valid argument to you?
Truth:
https://youtu.be/mwdo17GT6sg
We remain in the globalist's grip. As long as we cooperate and embrace their warped and ruinous vision and policies, we get a pass on reality. When we wake up as a nation from the propaganda induced coma, we get what was long overdue. A reality check based on truth.
Can you spare $100 for Stabucks?
So just when Doge e.c.t tries to reign in the spending, they downgrade the us ponzi dollar...
I am dumbfounded by those who complain about inflation yet attack Trump, et al, for trying to eliminate spending where there is less marginal benefit. It reminds me of the Huey Long quote about taxation. I'll adapt it for spending:
Don't cut you, don't cut me, cut that guy behind the tree.