May get waxed next week but used it to add to my puts.
We had Jensen and NVDA ecstasy a couple days ago and a rah-rah news conference and it broke. If it was going to run, there was your perfect chance. Google was up, Apple was up and it couldn’t hold. The underlying financial cesspool that has been created is starting to stink imo. Watching CNBC or Bloomberg for a market direction is like believing Cramers next hot stock tip. Wasn’t there a hedge fund made money fading him?
Crypto is virtual gold also we were told. Gold is holding pretty steady, Bitcoin, not so much.
It was up 700, QQQ bounced and it faded. Not the look or feel of a strong market.
Jap bonds just off new high yields, FTSE , DAX, HSI and Nikkei all look like tops.
I’ve always heard it takes the roar of a lion to keep up a bull market and the squeak of a mouse to end one. Something is squeaking imo.
Can Trump keep the bubble going until the Midterms are over? I kind of doubt it, but the bubble has been going since 2010, so what do I know. But if it does implode soon, look on the bright side - real estate prices will go lower. A lot lower.
My brother in law thinks I’m a time traveler now. In all honesty I was short the whole week, knowing they would run the #6 again, just like they did last expiry. And of course they did.
The Fed thing feels like it happened because Susan Collins decided she would show up pre-market and take a giant shit on the possibility of a rate cut. Powell understands that any sort of instability right now from financial astrology is extremely bad for everyone. Maybe that’s all he understands. Dude is retarded.
You are spot on for the most part but don't be surprised to see new highs on Dow and Ndx before year end. Might have seen the top for S&P, ~6550 was support for S&P so bounce was expected. First couple months of 2026 could get very ugly. Will start collecting shorts starting in 2-3 weeks. Did ok with a few shorts this last week. Btw, no one can guarantee their roadmap, me included. Things do change and always willing to say I was wrong. Good luck out there.
That which cannot continue isn't continuing. The Great post-'71 Fiat Bubble (GFB) is rolling over and entering its death throes. The only financial step necessary to "Short" the entire bloated, rancid, porcine carcass is to buy PMs.
Precious Metals. Gold, silver and the other "noble" minerals (platinum, rhodium, palladium - if you want to speculate). Gold and silver are the actual "money" metals.
I agree that this take has a far greater probability of being right than the notion that we're continuing a bull market after a brief pause.
The way I would characterize it is: A bull market is when all bad news can somehow be spun as good news, and the market reacts accordingly. A bear market is the opposite. NVidia's earnings yesterday were the unalloyed good news that still could not propel a further upward move. To me, this is what we see when a bear market has started: News that used to cause the market to rocket higher now merits only a yawn or can trigger a selloff.
I also agree that today's 500-point move felt like a bull trap. We'll see soon enough. Thanks, as always, for your level-headed insight.
My one overriding thought today is' what happens when leverage reaches its maximum level? What happens when dividends being paid are less than 1% and P/E ratios are at 40 and higher?
What happens when margin calls are made on half of all portfolios in existence?
Maybe we are not there today, but we are on a path that is headed in that direction.
Then when the "perfect storm" shows itself, who will step in to buy at any price?
Long FCX, ET, CCJ, SILV, GDXJ, NEM, and more. Been crushed for years, plowing into them. The Silver market is so tiny that if 5% of the money in all of the soon-to-implode CORW, NVDA, etc., were to flow into Silver, it would explode 20x higher.
Is it possible that the bank$ter$ are seducing the last of the suckers into the market before it hits 7000 and then falls like a knife? Getting CNBC to tell this narrative is not difficult. Amazing the people still believe this nonsense
After 4 months of steadily rising, the 50D MA of the S&P 500 has taken a recent dip. The market will follow earnings in the long run, as it always has, and if this blip becomes a longer term trend, the sinkhole will widen and those folks not paying attention and standing too close with get sucked in and swallowed.
Spot on. Nicely written.
May get waxed next week but used it to add to my puts.
We had Jensen and NVDA ecstasy a couple days ago and a rah-rah news conference and it broke. If it was going to run, there was your perfect chance. Google was up, Apple was up and it couldn’t hold. The underlying financial cesspool that has been created is starting to stink imo. Watching CNBC or Bloomberg for a market direction is like believing Cramers next hot stock tip. Wasn’t there a hedge fund made money fading him?
Crypto is virtual gold also we were told. Gold is holding pretty steady, Bitcoin, not so much.
It was up 700, QQQ bounced and it faded. Not the look or feel of a strong market.
Jap bonds just off new high yields, FTSE , DAX, HSI and Nikkei all look like tops.
I’ve always heard it takes the roar of a lion to keep up a bull market and the squeak of a mouse to end one. Something is squeaking imo.
Nobody from the FED should be allowed to open their mouths in pubic.
Agreed. What's the chance that Fed Banksters like Williams tip off their friends and family before talking about cutting or raising rates?
100%.
The FED is supposed to
Protect the currency. Instead, their only job appears to be to manipulate the market, keeping stocks elevated and rates from rising
And lo the dow did riseth 1 percent, and there was much rejoicing
Can Trump keep the bubble going until the Midterms are over? I kind of doubt it, but the bubble has been going since 2010, so what do I know. But if it does implode soon, look on the bright side - real estate prices will go lower. A lot lower.
Aladdin is telling us it is "safe and effective", Quoth.
Alright but I feel like we could have explained this week away differently.
https://imgur.com/a/zhdkKjJ
My brother in law thinks I’m a time traveler now. In all honesty I was short the whole week, knowing they would run the #6 again, just like they did last expiry. And of course they did.
The Fed thing feels like it happened because Susan Collins decided she would show up pre-market and take a giant shit on the possibility of a rate cut. Powell understands that any sort of instability right now from financial astrology is extremely bad for everyone. Maybe that’s all he understands. Dude is retarded.
You are spot on for the most part but don't be surprised to see new highs on Dow and Ndx before year end. Might have seen the top for S&P, ~6550 was support for S&P so bounce was expected. First couple months of 2026 could get very ugly. Will start collecting shorts starting in 2-3 weeks. Did ok with a few shorts this last week. Btw, no one can guarantee their roadmap, me included. Things do change and always willing to say I was wrong. Good luck out there.
That which cannot continue isn't continuing. The Great post-'71 Fiat Bubble (GFB) is rolling over and entering its death throes. The only financial step necessary to "Short" the entire bloated, rancid, porcine carcass is to buy PMs.
Okay, somebody help me out. PMs?
Precious Metals. Gold, silver and the other "noble" minerals (platinum, rhodium, palladium - if you want to speculate). Gold and silver are the actual "money" metals.
[Homer Simpson head slap] Thank you!
Best title EVER of an essay!
I agree that this take has a far greater probability of being right than the notion that we're continuing a bull market after a brief pause.
The way I would characterize it is: A bull market is when all bad news can somehow be spun as good news, and the market reacts accordingly. A bear market is the opposite. NVidia's earnings yesterday were the unalloyed good news that still could not propel a further upward move. To me, this is what we see when a bear market has started: News that used to cause the market to rocket higher now merits only a yawn or can trigger a selloff.
I also agree that today's 500-point move felt like a bull trap. We'll see soon enough. Thanks, as always, for your level-headed insight.
We were getting entertained last week. Still holding my PM stocks for the fireworks.
My one overriding thought today is' what happens when leverage reaches its maximum level? What happens when dividends being paid are less than 1% and P/E ratios are at 40 and higher?
What happens when margin calls are made on half of all portfolios in existence?
Maybe we are not there today, but we are on a path that is headed in that direction.
Then when the "perfect storm" shows itself, who will step in to buy at any price?
Long FCX, ET, CCJ, SILV, GDXJ, NEM, and more. Been crushed for years, plowing into them. The Silver market is so tiny that if 5% of the money in all of the soon-to-implode CORW, NVDA, etc., were to flow into Silver, it would explode 20x higher.
Is it possible that the bank$ter$ are seducing the last of the suckers into the market before it hits 7000 and then falls like a knife? Getting CNBC to tell this narrative is not difficult. Amazing the people still believe this nonsense
After 4 months of steadily rising, the 50D MA of the S&P 500 has taken a recent dip. The market will follow earnings in the long run, as it always has, and if this blip becomes a longer term trend, the sinkhole will widen and those folks not paying attention and standing too close with get sucked in and swallowed.