SpaceX is set to IPO today in what is expected to be the largest public offering in history. In my opinion, it may also wind up being one of the clearest temperature gauges we have for how much life is left in the current AI bubble.
I’ve said for weeks that I don’t view this as just another IPO. SpaceX now sits at the intersection of almost every narrative that has powered this market cycle: artificial intelligence, founder worship, passive flows, retail access, private-market exuberance, and investors’ willingness to pay nearly any price for a sufficiently futuristic story. And, in a couple days, options gamma.
At a reported valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion, I continue to think the setup for this name looks nothing short of completely deranged. Since I last wrote about it, another institutional investor has publicly questioned the valuation and I’ve decided what I’ll be watching closely (other than price) in the week or two after the IPO starts trading.