With people rushing into Gold and Silver like at a 3 for 1 lap dance sale at Scores, do you worry about there being enough actual metal for the redemptions should they be requested? Is paper Gold really what investors think it is or are we heading towards a repeat of 1971?
I’m gonna just go long bonds and wait for the Fed to do Fed things. The day Powell leaves we are gonna see a 200bps cut so locking in now is basically profiting off the stupidity and lack of testicles by the Government.
QTR, if the market really starts to blow, can we get a throwback "our bullshit economy" series podcast? I need to hear the OG "what up fools!?!" as this thing melts down...
Your presentation of 'shorting the entire system' was great (I watched it years ago). The only thing that would have improved the delivery would have been to do it in shorts and a tanktop with your Moscow Mule in hand. Cheers, Raven.
- why complain about a couple billions lost in the real economy when trillions are being incinerated in AI capex (and the market rejoices) ?
- in retrospect, when leaders such as Mme Lagarde (then French economy minister) say officially that crisis is contained then it was a great time to short the market.
Thanks for your daily rants which I never miss to read.
PS : Bought more RGLD yesterday while closing my nose (converting my SAND calls and short puts into long position before SAND delists on Monday). Usually when I'm comfortable establishing a position it goes the other way. When I'm uncomfortable it's usually the right call.
Any moral hazard for the shareholders or management? We’ll see. I have a roll of 90% when I first started stacking. It’s marked 4.2. That x face. Now it’s 23 or so. 500% devalued dollar, not increasing value of silver…
"Companies will do anything to avoid acknowledging the consequences of their reckless decisions — until the numbers simply can’t be hidden anymore."
Twenty years ago, I worked for a Fortune 100 company. Around 2006, our Chief Investment Officer said (self-servingly) in a quarterly results meeting that our investment portfolio was doing so well that our core business results were almost irrelevant. Seemed like a red flag only a few years removed from Enron. And of course a few years later we discovered it was all CDO / CLO bullshit. We weren’t AIG-level, but it was definitely death sentence-level exposure. I was (an extremely junior member) on the COO staff, and for two weeks I took notes in C-level meetings where it was discussed on a daily basis where we could get commercial paper to keep operating a $30bn+ company operating for another 24 hours. That was my eye-opening lesson that companies that make $90M in revenue each day don’t have enough cash on hand to stay in business that day because they’d rather light money on fire in their investments. The executives were scared shitless, some of them just frozen in the thick of it. The only reason we found the money on a daily basis to stay operating was because of the strength of our brand. Two months later, you would have never known how things went down — the high-fiving, back-slapping, and self-congratulating for leading the company through the wilderness was insane. Put another way, they were thrilled to not be forced to acknowledge how poorly they had managed risk and that we only stayed solvent due to luck and happy accidents.
I think there’s a 0% chance things can break naturally. That benefits nobody. Meaning all are losers.
This shit with the regional banks is Dimon whipping his micro penis out and letting Bessent know how easy it is for him to destroy and cause isolated strife in financial markets. It was a seriously dick move. Here’s why: Neither Zion nor Western took a major capital loss. Annualized it’s less than 1% for Western and 1.6% for Zion. Furthermore this is a collateral dispute that is being litigated. We have no idea if they’ll reclaim any of these losses, but even if they don’t they’re well above their CET1 tier requirements. If they recovered 0 dollars the charge off would represent less than a fraction of a percent of their reserves. This is the pettiness of an evil piece of trash (Dimon with his cockroaches comment, vile) showing what happens if you threaten his margins. And I can bet you money Bessent received that message. The markets, though, didn’t, because they’re retarded. Now to see if Bessent continues to push for deregulation and lowering of cap requirements and the endless quagmire of paperwork or do we get to the monopoly brothers continuing to run all financial markets on earth.
I think what is happening at large, as has been posited by a few other experts, is 100% intentional. People are throwing out a number of reasons, but here are 3:
(1) The Great Debasement theory. Inflating money supply to manage debt away. But to counter the inflation people in the know are gobbling up gold (which we have seen happening for a year now). They’re trying to control this so we don’t have a crazy spiral like we did in the 1970s.
(2) Dedollarization. Doomberg had a pretty good read about Chinas sudden case of having great big balls that supports this. We’re seeing massive buys (the biggest) outside the country. Maybe it’s a BRICS like coalition or BRICS, but with the current global economic situation, if you’re gonna take your shot at the king, this might be the best time to do it. Let’s not forget crypto in this mix because combined it might be enough.
(3) massive shift in global economic policy that involves switching everyone in the “free world” to CBDC. Gold and silver prevent wealth erosion while everyone else gets to be a peasant. Larry Fink’s dream. Think about what happened to gold during Covid. Which also helps explain silver a bit better. Then and now, there are more than just coincidences.
Anyway. I don’t think this is some dude that fell asleep at the wheel. Or that the fated AI bubble doomsday comes. We know that’s bullshit because all we’re seeing are massive upward revisions.
Whatever is happening is being controlled with precision IMO.
Wow, yesterday it was the banks and today it's the miners. The ones I own are down over 6% right now. Ouch. I guess big runups leak to sharp corrections. I hope that's all it is cause I got a lot of exposure there.
With people rushing into Gold and Silver like at a 3 for 1 lap dance sale at Scores, do you worry about there being enough actual metal for the redemptions should they be requested? Is paper Gold really what investors think it is or are we heading towards a repeat of 1971?
71
AND - no way to "kick the can".
wait... "3 for 1 lap dance sale at Scores".... is this something they do or is this just a hypothetical?
Not sure about Scores but certain clubs have specials. It’s just the dancers that they offer them with aren’t very “special” 😂😂
😆 I figured either that or duration gets cut. Inflation is bad everywhere!
You’re not lying. I went to the store to buy Hagen-Dazs (don’t judge me) and I think Cocaine is actually cheaper
I’m gonna just go long bonds and wait for the Fed to do Fed things. The day Powell leaves we are gonna see a 200bps cut so locking in now is basically profiting off the stupidity and lack of testicles by the Government.
Always count on the Fed and the government to do the wrong things.
The worst thing you can hear is “we’re from the Government and we’re here to help”
Unless rate cuts are priced in? Long bonds continuing their own bull run.
For us whippersnappers, what happened in 1971?
President Nixon “temporarily” took the US off the gold standard and started the journey of debasement for American currency
QTR, if the market really starts to blow, can we get a throwback "our bullshit economy" series podcast? I need to hear the OG "what up fools!?!" as this thing melts down...
Damnnnnn I really thought we were going to get the Las Vegas link!!!!
Your presentation of 'shorting the entire system' was great (I watched it years ago). The only thing that would have improved the delivery would have been to do it in shorts and a tanktop with your Moscow Mule in hand. Cheers, Raven.
Tomorrow and the weekend will be "interesting"
Nuckin futs
After that debate...i expect lots of listings to hit NYC tomorrow. More downward pressure however incremental the realtionship. .
Learned my lessons w regionals 3 years ago. Escaped unscathed.
Sleep well 😴
Dear Chris, two things come to my mind:
- why complain about a couple billions lost in the real economy when trillions are being incinerated in AI capex (and the market rejoices) ?
- in retrospect, when leaders such as Mme Lagarde (then French economy minister) say officially that crisis is contained then it was a great time to short the market.
Thanks for your daily rants which I never miss to read.
PS : Bought more RGLD yesterday while closing my nose (converting my SAND calls and short puts into long position before SAND delists on Monday). Usually when I'm comfortable establishing a position it goes the other way. When I'm uncomfortable it's usually the right call.
Explains the PM’s vertical trend. Big buyers seeking protection
He probably didn’t have any Moscow Mules but should be crowing about the wolf by now. Ladies and Gentlemen, Grant Williams:
https://youtu.be/fjhLp8AHAYc?si=i39_qpc2UsZQ6bmZ
Any moral hazard for the shareholders or management? We’ll see. I have a roll of 90% when I first started stacking. It’s marked 4.2. That x face. Now it’s 23 or so. 500% devalued dollar, not increasing value of silver…
There are 360 silver paper contracts to every ounce of physical silver. Talk about a rehypothecated scam.
"Companies will do anything to avoid acknowledging the consequences of their reckless decisions — until the numbers simply can’t be hidden anymore."
Twenty years ago, I worked for a Fortune 100 company. Around 2006, our Chief Investment Officer said (self-servingly) in a quarterly results meeting that our investment portfolio was doing so well that our core business results were almost irrelevant. Seemed like a red flag only a few years removed from Enron. And of course a few years later we discovered it was all CDO / CLO bullshit. We weren’t AIG-level, but it was definitely death sentence-level exposure. I was (an extremely junior member) on the COO staff, and for two weeks I took notes in C-level meetings where it was discussed on a daily basis where we could get commercial paper to keep operating a $30bn+ company operating for another 24 hours. That was my eye-opening lesson that companies that make $90M in revenue each day don’t have enough cash on hand to stay in business that day because they’d rather light money on fire in their investments. The executives were scared shitless, some of them just frozen in the thick of it. The only reason we found the money on a daily basis to stay operating was because of the strength of our brand. Two months later, you would have never known how things went down — the high-fiving, back-slapping, and self-congratulating for leading the company through the wilderness was insane. Put another way, they were thrilled to not be forced to acknowledge how poorly they had managed risk and that we only stayed solvent due to luck and happy accidents.
I think there’s a 0% chance things can break naturally. That benefits nobody. Meaning all are losers.
This shit with the regional banks is Dimon whipping his micro penis out and letting Bessent know how easy it is for him to destroy and cause isolated strife in financial markets. It was a seriously dick move. Here’s why: Neither Zion nor Western took a major capital loss. Annualized it’s less than 1% for Western and 1.6% for Zion. Furthermore this is a collateral dispute that is being litigated. We have no idea if they’ll reclaim any of these losses, but even if they don’t they’re well above their CET1 tier requirements. If they recovered 0 dollars the charge off would represent less than a fraction of a percent of their reserves. This is the pettiness of an evil piece of trash (Dimon with his cockroaches comment, vile) showing what happens if you threaten his margins. And I can bet you money Bessent received that message. The markets, though, didn’t, because they’re retarded. Now to see if Bessent continues to push for deregulation and lowering of cap requirements and the endless quagmire of paperwork or do we get to the monopoly brothers continuing to run all financial markets on earth.
I think what is happening at large, as has been posited by a few other experts, is 100% intentional. People are throwing out a number of reasons, but here are 3:
(1) The Great Debasement theory. Inflating money supply to manage debt away. But to counter the inflation people in the know are gobbling up gold (which we have seen happening for a year now). They’re trying to control this so we don’t have a crazy spiral like we did in the 1970s.
(2) Dedollarization. Doomberg had a pretty good read about Chinas sudden case of having great big balls that supports this. We’re seeing massive buys (the biggest) outside the country. Maybe it’s a BRICS like coalition or BRICS, but with the current global economic situation, if you’re gonna take your shot at the king, this might be the best time to do it. Let’s not forget crypto in this mix because combined it might be enough.
(3) massive shift in global economic policy that involves switching everyone in the “free world” to CBDC. Gold and silver prevent wealth erosion while everyone else gets to be a peasant. Larry Fink’s dream. Think about what happened to gold during Covid. Which also helps explain silver a bit better. Then and now, there are more than just coincidences.
Anyway. I don’t think this is some dude that fell asleep at the wheel. Or that the fated AI bubble doomsday comes. We know that’s bullshit because all we’re seeing are massive upward revisions.
Whatever is happening is being controlled with precision IMO.
I'm long puts on $CVNA and $ALLY and both plummeted today. Tomorrow if we get a relief rally, I will buy more. If not, I'm shorting everything!
Wish I had some real cash to short the regionals, sure not selling gold holdings to do so. Great article Chris
Wow, yesterday it was the banks and today it's the miners. The ones I own are down over 6% right now. Ouch. I guess big runups leak to sharp corrections. I hope that's all it is cause I got a lot of exposure there.