I appreciate the lectures about the title. Your points are all taken. But I'm committing to writing this blog unapologetically in my own voice, and the title is literally the first thing I said to myself when I read the Bloomberg article. Have a beautiful day.
Being politically correct is fraud. You can’t find information like this anywhere. If someone is fixated on the title and not the gold information you’re spewing they clearly have emotional issues which cause them to not focus correctly. That’s ok. They can be that way. However, don’t give them that attention. Their disease will seep into your own emotional state and cause you to focus on the wrong thing.
Stay the course. Your articles are pure gold. Hopefully PSIL will take off and all these emotionally unstable characters will get a nice reset and see the bigger picture in things.
I appreciate your excellent and articulate article very much and I share your outrage. You don't need to apologize (at least, not to any of your readers) for using such shocking blasphemy in the title, but know that it managed to offend to a larger portion of your readers than will say. Seriously, you are a better writer and a better person than that.
Thanks for the heads up on this reduxing in private equity! Bastards going to bastard. Love that movie distilling complex concepts into pieces the anyman could take in. The allegory (or 2x4) of the regulator being self blinded at the moment is just fun. Also, as an aside, perhaps the most important lesson from all this -DON’T ORDER THE FISH ON A WEDNESDAY!
When’s your next airport layover? I’ll join you. I’ll even buy the rounds so long as it comes with listening to you further expound on all of this. Oh, and don’t change either the title or your awesome voice.
Indeed, nothing changes except the titles and the world has become linguistically more harsh rather than poetic. Poetically it rhymes w/ such regularity it could be culpability instead. Will there ever be anything new except ways to package and sell income streams to a new herd of bright-eyed money managers? They’re like crows with a new shiny thing. In turn, it seems each is a parabolic marker that is a Burry-esque reminder that if we had enough backbone we would at least recover & bank cost basis every single time.
Rating agencies are a scam, they claimed, after the Great Recession, they are not responsible for their ratings because it’s free speech. That’s Bullshit! They should be held accountable for their ratings particularly when they knowingly upgrade the ratings to get the business. When companies pay for their ratings and can shop between agencies, what could possibly go wrong? To quote Charlie Munger “show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.”
THAT is the big question! Chris points out 2008 but being a Brit, a few years older and in Real Estate in 1987, I was one of a very few calling out 'bubble' - it carried on until it exploded in 1990/91, ruining millions. Totally preventable, the scum who let it happen were never held responsible.
Mondays are far and away my busiest days and I often don't read this or any other blog on Mondays. This headline got my attention and I stopped everything else and read every word.
Whatever opinion others may have on the headline, it performed its job flawlessly.
Great commentary Chris. I have been concerned about the hiding of off-balance-sheet garbage in insurance company vehicles for a while now, as a result of reading informed analysis by you, Michael Burry, Steve Eisman, and others. Maria Rodriguez Valladares just wrote a piece on Forbes describing the banking system (as shown by a Fed study) using capital transfers from nonbank affiliates to boost their Basel III capital compliance. This left the unregulated private bank affiliates in a weakened position, and of course they took on more risk to offset the lost capital.
It's looking more and more like a replay of both the GFC and Tech bubbles, which not surprisingly were characterized by massive frauds, one of the main malignancies that seem to always accompany great financial bubbles. Throw in the ridiculous accounting gymnastics of the AI boom and the circular finance in AI that looks just like the same thing done in the great Japanese RE bubble, and you have financial catastrophe in a bottle.
The cause is simply the massive moral hazard put in place by Bush, Obama, and the Fed over the last 25 years, and the relentless socialization of private losses by all parts of the federal government over the same period. No one pays a price for this game; indeed, they keep their gains and get a bonus from the feds as icing on the cake. There are very good reasons why the Fourth Turning is happening, and this is one of the biggest ones.
That's one of the best final sentences to an essay I have ever read. Reminiscent of PJ O'Rourke's essay, Among the Euro-Weenies, where a smug European has just lectured him about everything wrong with America and why the Old Continent will always be superior. O'Rourke concludes: "He just smiled his shabby, superior European smile. (God, don't these people have dentists?)"
Douchebags be douchebags: Rules are for suckers and integrity can't be spent. Better for me to stop gambling in all forms and limit my exposure to douchebags.
I appreciate the lectures about the title. Your points are all taken. But I'm committing to writing this blog unapologetically in my own voice, and the title is literally the first thing I said to myself when I read the Bloomberg article. Have a beautiful day.
The title did cause me to pause & read it.
It didn’t seem to bother ZeroHedge.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2079256797949342196?s=46
Well now, there's your moral compass in life.
Being politically correct is fraud. You can’t find information like this anywhere. If someone is fixated on the title and not the gold information you’re spewing they clearly have emotional issues which cause them to not focus correctly. That’s ok. They can be that way. However, don’t give them that attention. Their disease will seep into your own emotional state and cause you to focus on the wrong thing.
Stay the course. Your articles are pure gold. Hopefully PSIL will take off and all these emotionally unstable characters will get a nice reset and see the bigger picture in things.
I appreciate your excellent and articulate article very much and I share your outrage. You don't need to apologize (at least, not to any of your readers) for using such shocking blasphemy in the title, but know that it managed to offend to a larger portion of your readers than will say. Seriously, you are a better writer and a better person than that.
You should be lectured on that title.
You discipline yourself in other areas of life, use some discipline in your language. That is completely uncalled for.
No cancel culture here. Chris calls 'em as he sees 'em. You have a delete key. Unfortunately, no keyboard has a Truth key....
I like the title. Emphatic as it should be on another wall st looming fu
I would probably shell out for a domestic roundtrip ticket to sit in an airport for a few hours buying drinks for an inspired QTR.
I'm all up for a QTR symposium on the concourse!
But you dont understand.
"This time is different".
I learned a few months ago they are burying this garbage in annuities to get it off their own balance sheets.
It takes a special type of POS to put grandma and grandpa on the hook for this insanity.
Love the title, and the content. Keep being you!
Thanks for the heads up on this reduxing in private equity! Bastards going to bastard. Love that movie distilling complex concepts into pieces the anyman could take in. The allegory (or 2x4) of the regulator being self blinded at the moment is just fun. Also, as an aside, perhaps the most important lesson from all this -DON’T ORDER THE FISH ON A WEDNESDAY!
Damn, Chris, I just added sitting next to you in an airport for three hours to my bucket list!!
Was also thinking that was a great closing line.
When’s your next airport layover? I’ll join you. I’ll even buy the rounds so long as it comes with listening to you further expound on all of this. Oh, and don’t change either the title or your awesome voice.
Indeed, nothing changes except the titles and the world has become linguistically more harsh rather than poetic. Poetically it rhymes w/ such regularity it could be culpability instead. Will there ever be anything new except ways to package and sell income streams to a new herd of bright-eyed money managers? They’re like crows with a new shiny thing. In turn, it seems each is a parabolic marker that is a Burry-esque reminder that if we had enough backbone we would at least recover & bank cost basis every single time.
Rating agencies are a scam, they claimed, after the Great Recession, they are not responsible for their ratings because it’s free speech. That’s Bullshit! They should be held accountable for their ratings particularly when they knowingly upgrade the ratings to get the business. When companies pay for their ratings and can shop between agencies, what could possibly go wrong? To quote Charlie Munger “show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.”
Something/someone is letting them get away with it......again.
THAT is the big question! Chris points out 2008 but being a Brit, a few years older and in Real Estate in 1987, I was one of a very few calling out 'bubble' - it carried on until it exploded in 1990/91, ruining millions. Totally preventable, the scum who let it happen were never held responsible.
The asshole in me wants to see this whole thing explode and have the fed do absolutely nothing. It wont happen, but it is what needs to happen.
Mondays are far and away my busiest days and I often don't read this or any other blog on Mondays. This headline got my attention and I stopped everything else and read every word.
Whatever opinion others may have on the headline, it performed its job flawlessly.
Good post - and I love the title. Some of us do remember 2008, and how long it took us to dig our way out of that one...
Great commentary Chris. I have been concerned about the hiding of off-balance-sheet garbage in insurance company vehicles for a while now, as a result of reading informed analysis by you, Michael Burry, Steve Eisman, and others. Maria Rodriguez Valladares just wrote a piece on Forbes describing the banking system (as shown by a Fed study) using capital transfers from nonbank affiliates to boost their Basel III capital compliance. This left the unregulated private bank affiliates in a weakened position, and of course they took on more risk to offset the lost capital.
It's looking more and more like a replay of both the GFC and Tech bubbles, which not surprisingly were characterized by massive frauds, one of the main malignancies that seem to always accompany great financial bubbles. Throw in the ridiculous accounting gymnastics of the AI boom and the circular finance in AI that looks just like the same thing done in the great Japanese RE bubble, and you have financial catastrophe in a bottle.
The cause is simply the massive moral hazard put in place by Bush, Obama, and the Fed over the last 25 years, and the relentless socialization of private losses by all parts of the federal government over the same period. No one pays a price for this game; indeed, they keep their gains and get a bonus from the feds as icing on the cake. There are very good reasons why the Fourth Turning is happening, and this is one of the biggest ones.
That's one of the best final sentences to an essay I have ever read. Reminiscent of PJ O'Rourke's essay, Among the Euro-Weenies, where a smug European has just lectured him about everything wrong with America and why the Old Continent will always be superior. O'Rourke concludes: "He just smiled his shabby, superior European smile. (God, don't these people have dentists?)"
Douchebags be douchebags: Rules are for suckers and integrity can't be spent. Better for me to stop gambling in all forms and limit my exposure to douchebags.