Kevin Warsh Speaks: Short, But Pointless
...a lot of words, almost no vision, and plenty of carefully engineered ambiguity.
To quote Ghostbusters II as I occasionally do: “Very good. Short, but pointless.”
Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference as chairman delivered exactly what you’d expect from a central banker: a lot of words, almost no vision, and plenty of carefully engineered ambiguity.
If you were hoping for some insight into where policy is headed or how the Fed views the increasingly fragile backdrop, you didn’t get it. It was classic Fed jawboning, saying just enough to avoid making news while saying almost nothing at all.
Ironically, that may be enough to keep the market on the same trajectory it’s been on for the last couple of weeks. The tape continues to feel heavy. The AI trade and memory names remain under pressure, overseas weakness is starting to bleed through, and the recent sharp selloff in the KOSPI certainly didn’t help sentiment.
None of that guarantees lower prices from here, but it’s difficult to argue the market has regained any meaningful momentum.
Perhaps the most uninspiring development was today’s price action itself. Markets spent much of the day worrying about the possibility of a surprise rate hike. They didn’t get one. In theory, that should have been a relief. Instead, stocks still rolled over into the close and finished near the session lows. That’s not exactly the kind of behavior you see when buyers are eager to step in.
Could positive geopolitical headlines or another round of AI optimism spark a bounce? Absolutely. Markets rarely move in straight lines.
But my case is that we’re in the early stages of a broader de-leveraging process after the excesses that built up into the highs a couple of weeks ago.
If that’s right, today’s Fed performance did absolutely nothing to change that narrative. The Fed once again managed to be reactive instead of forward-looking, leaving investors to navigate an increasingly uncertain environment with little more than boilerplate reassurance and carefully rehearsed platitudes.
A couple reminders. This week I released a list of 11 ETFs I’d buy if I had to own them forever…
Here’s what else I’ve covered recently:
What were your thoughts on today’s decision and presser? I’d love to hear in the comments below.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.
As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.
And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Perhaps Warsh listened to you & Andy yesterday and figured out that the Fed is no longer in charge of interest - the Bond Market is.
Those bond vigilantes, are they in the room with us right now?