When I see my gold miners go to the moon I can't help thinking "are they in a gold bubble" then I look at the AI (and now quantum computing) stocks and think "not yet".
Interesting times we live (Golden age of Grift). Keep your head cool and don't do stupid things.
I couldn't believe how young "Fart" and Peter looked? I remember back 20 years, I blinked my eyes, and here I am doin the garden, diggin the weeds, who could ask for more, right? Whatever you do Chris, don't BLINK!!! Hey, your interview with Money Matters was great, and the one with Makori was better yet...and it was good to put a mugshot to your work...keep up the the good fight! PS-is Makori a looker or what?
Watched Inside Job again. Whenever the markets look to good too be true I watch it. I have to say many of the people in the film are still around today, which I find very disturbing as it's as if nothing happened in 2008-2009. Wall Street has moved on from CDO's and credit default swaps to their new con: the bigger fool theory, Crypto and bottom feeding off naive retail investors who weren't around for the Great Financial Crisis. Will be interesting to see what is the one big thing that starts the death spiral this time.? I agree with Julien: keep a cool head and don't get sucked into FOMO.
Raven, your prescience is right on point. Gaming the stock market is now the game itself; when coupled with the "Greater Fool Theory" we are staring at a catastrophe and cheering for more. Best advise given to me is "Time to switch from generating wealth to preserving wealth". I have recently done so and watched several previously owned stocks double and move onward and upward. I persist in preservation mode but it is mentally hard to maintain that stance. Once the market is over its climb I will be glad for my preparations for the market downslope disaster.
Doesn’t that do your head in? Would be nice if Substack could drop unfinished or unsent comments into a draft folder just in case. It’s always one’s best rants that get lost too😂
Gotta know when to yield. Im right there with him.
I just cant emphasize enough how grateful I am for the clarity and good content. Watching or looking to the usual sources we used to rely on has become so utterly depressing. It makes me wonder if it was always this merittless and corrupt..
As ever, low tech to the rescue. Jot those great themes down the old fashioned way with paper and pencil. The rewrite after a post is vaporized is often better anyway.
I saw that movie in the theater when it first came out. Back in ‘08 I felt a crash coming almost month by month, watching all the TV commercials for money lenders, the housing mania, all the flipping, it was insane, and then it happened. I wasn’t even surprised.
But now I am surprised.
Because I’ve felt some of the same feelings for years. Years. And I check myself by listening to people with great long-term records who’ve said the same thing. Some are deprecated as Uber Bears but those aren’t fair accusations.
Still . . . No crash. Nothing but up. For years! I’m just stunned. Maybe I’ve over-thunk it this time, or admittedly didn’t expect the AI bubble to save the day. Now knowing more than I did back then and being just as skeptical. Sometimes knowing too much is a curse.
But at any rate. . . .it is what it is. And here we are. It will eventually go down. God knows when? Or if it’ll just hyperinflate until half the nation are worker-slaves to the half who owns stock. It could happen.
When those fund redemptions start and nobody will buy those AI positions, selling will quickly move to the better issues. Unfortunately, being in cash is only partial insurance since that cash will be diluted in any rescue. Where's the safe haven?
I couldn't agree more about how worthless sell side analyst ratings are . . . .one recent and especially hilarious example: at the time Silicon Valley Bank blew up, only 1 of 24 analysts had it rated as a "sell". . . everyone else had it as a "hold" or buy".
Please don't tell me that's the first time you have seen that movie., it was excellent, no? Matt Damon was so engaged as narrator, that by the end he wrote the final section himself. The filmmakers won an Oscar, check out the acceptance speech:
2008 -The reserve fund. The oldest money market fund. At the time, many of my clients were nervous and we went to cash early in the year . We thought we were waiting out the fire storm in the market through this stable money market fund. When they froze withdrawals and pulled back the covers, I couldn't believe what they were investing in. Lehman commercial paper? We eventually got back 99 % of the funds. It pretty much sucked for me at the time but it instilled that all these analyst, talking heads on CNBC and investment gurus never take a 100 foot step back (looking at a battlefield from a high point) and see what is happening. Lesson learned.
I have to say, Rickards' comments on the Genius Act and lack of regulation of stablecoin issuers are wildly inaccurate.
He says issuers 'can buy anything.'. Nope, dollars or treasuries.
He says they are unregulated. Nope, annual audits, monthly disclosures of the composition of assets, and complete segregation from operating funds.
He says governments are not selling US Treasuries. Nope. China has gone from $1.35 trillion to $756 billion over the past 10 years. Russia isn't buying any for understandable reasons. Japan and the UK have taken up some of this slack, but nowhere near enough to offset the increased supply.
The interviewer called him on this at one point. 'Wait, I've heard that Central Banks now own more gold than US Treasuries.'. He then had to back down a bit.
He made these false claims in an effort to rebut Putin's assertion that the Genius Act is an effort to prop up the Treasury market now that foreign governments are selling. Rickards failed; Putin's right. This is exactly what the Genius Act is.
Anyone familiar with Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake theory knows what the Genius Act is. It's an effort to cause the dollar to soak up all the liquidity, leaving none for other currencies.
The Genius Act just passed. No one has been audited pursuant to that yet, but they will. If memory serves, they'll be subject to Genius Act audit requirements within 120 after the regs (not the statute) are promulgated. Rickards wasn't limiting his comments to the past or even suggesting imminent collapse before the Genius Act kicks in.
I'll get to Tether in a second. Circle is the second largest issuer of stablecoins (USDC). They've had annual audits since 2018 (as well as monthly attestations). Grant Thornton was their auditor. Now I think it's Deloitte. Regardless, it's one of the Big 4.
I had the discussion re Tether with Doomberg in his chat when he just started accepting subscriptions a few years back. His position was that Tether would be the next crypto domino to fall. (FTX had just gone bust.) My position was that Tether likely was insolvent at some point when it was intermingling funds to backup Bitfinex, but that it was no longer. I'm pretty sure my position has been vindicated. Tether generated $13 billion in profit last year with 150 employees ($86 million/employee), easily eclipsing the highest publicly traded company (NVidia: $2 million/employee).
I doubt even Jim Rickards would put any money on the notion that Tether is a fraud at the present day, nor were his comments confined to Tether. His complaint was that 'people give stablecoin issuers dollars and they get nothing in return.' That was one part he got right, and it's what enabled Tether to go from likely insolvent to phenomenally profitable.
Finally, I pointed out that Circle (and others) have been audited and will be audited under the Genius Act. Tether? Not a chance. In my opinion, this is because it would reveal that Tether was insolvent when it commingled funds to prop us Bitfinex 7-8 years ago. But, if Tether wants to continue to be a leader in the space, it will have to form another entity that will be subject to audit. Tether already has announced plans to do so.
Sorry to go on and on. Love your stuff, including your interviews. The recent one with Michelle Makori was awesome.
Investing today involves where government is spending their money. As a percentage of GDP, the federal government spends 23% while state and local governments spend 13% for a total of 36% of GDP. That's 36% of a total GDP of $30 Trillion. Those who receive what the governments spend varies from year to year, but that's how so many in congress get rich. They know where to invest, it's in the sectors that receive the money they authorized to be spent each year.
Enjoyed the article and re-watched the movie. But, I'm a bit perplexed by the calls for "more regulations". Have the "regulators' ever stopped anything? It seems to me that if regulations were put in place for the crypto market it would increase not decrease risk. I say this because if regulations are put in place the likelihood for a bailout goes way, way up. To wit, the very fact that the government regulated the market would be cited as a reason why the government has to bail out the industry since it's "regulators" failed
For what it’s worth, I again recommend digging into the pe owned insurance cos and their related party transactions. Similarly clownish conflicts of interest. Athene recently put out some investor presentations, and in one they suggested they were the least egregious of their cohort pulling these shenanigans - pretty shocking to see them call it out.
Thanks for the rant Chris.
When I see my gold miners go to the moon I can't help thinking "are they in a gold bubble" then I look at the AI (and now quantum computing) stocks and think "not yet".
Interesting times we live (Golden age of Grift). Keep your head cool and don't do stupid things.
Good advice muchacho.
Liked: Golden age of Grift, led by the shitcoin backed Grifter-in-Chief
The Peter Schiff clip...Priceless!!! Watching "Inside Job" tonight!
LOL the best is Art Laffer. He just can't figure out why Peter is just so wrong (in his mind). He's genuinely befuddled.
I couldn't believe how young "Fart" and Peter looked? I remember back 20 years, I blinked my eyes, and here I am doin the garden, diggin the weeds, who could ask for more, right? Whatever you do Chris, don't BLINK!!! Hey, your interview with Money Matters was great, and the one with Makori was better yet...and it was good to put a mugshot to your work...keep up the the good fight! PS-is Makori a looker or what?
She possesses many traits commonly sought after by the superficial male.
Watched Inside Job again. Whenever the markets look to good too be true I watch it. I have to say many of the people in the film are still around today, which I find very disturbing as it's as if nothing happened in 2008-2009. Wall Street has moved on from CDO's and credit default swaps to their new con: the bigger fool theory, Crypto and bottom feeding off naive retail investors who weren't around for the Great Financial Crisis. Will be interesting to see what is the one big thing that starts the death spiral this time.? I agree with Julien: keep a cool head and don't get sucked into FOMO.
Raven, your prescience is right on point. Gaming the stock market is now the game itself; when coupled with the "Greater Fool Theory" we are staring at a catastrophe and cheering for more. Best advise given to me is "Time to switch from generating wealth to preserving wealth". I have recently done so and watched several previously owned stocks double and move onward and upward. I persist in preservation mode but it is mentally hard to maintain that stance. Once the market is over its climb I will be glad for my preparations for the market downslope disaster.
I had 2 rants going that got that got fat finger lost while perfecting them.
Listen to the blog gods Mike and keep it moving.
Thanks Cap.
That's the absolute worst. Been there many times. Thanks for taking the time regardless.
Doesn’t that do your head in? Would be nice if Substack could drop unfinished or unsent comments into a draft folder just in case. It’s always one’s best rants that get lost too😂
Gotta know when to yield. Im right there with him.
I just cant emphasize enough how grateful I am for the clarity and good content. Watching or looking to the usual sources we used to rely on has become so utterly depressing. It makes me wonder if it was always this merittless and corrupt..
I always drop them off in Notepad as I'm working on them, just in case.
As ever, low tech to the rescue. Jot those great themes down the old fashioned way with paper and pencil. The rewrite after a post is vaporized is often better anyway.
I saw that movie in the theater when it first came out. Back in ‘08 I felt a crash coming almost month by month, watching all the TV commercials for money lenders, the housing mania, all the flipping, it was insane, and then it happened. I wasn’t even surprised.
But now I am surprised.
Because I’ve felt some of the same feelings for years. Years. And I check myself by listening to people with great long-term records who’ve said the same thing. Some are deprecated as Uber Bears but those aren’t fair accusations.
Still . . . No crash. Nothing but up. For years! I’m just stunned. Maybe I’ve over-thunk it this time, or admittedly didn’t expect the AI bubble to save the day. Now knowing more than I did back then and being just as skeptical. Sometimes knowing too much is a curse.
But at any rate. . . .it is what it is. And here we are. It will eventually go down. God knows when? Or if it’ll just hyperinflate until half the nation are worker-slaves to the half who owns stock. It could happen.
When those fund redemptions start and nobody will buy those AI positions, selling will quickly move to the better issues. Unfortunately, being in cash is only partial insurance since that cash will be diluted in any rescue. Where's the safe haven?
You can boil it all down to one simple fact, you can't change human nature.
Correct.
I couldn't agree more about how worthless sell side analyst ratings are . . . .one recent and especially hilarious example: at the time Silicon Valley Bank blew up, only 1 of 24 analysts had it rated as a "sell". . . everyone else had it as a "hold" or buy".
Please don't tell me that's the first time you have seen that movie., it was excellent, no? Matt Damon was so engaged as narrator, that by the end he wrote the final section himself. The filmmakers won an Oscar, check out the acceptance speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB--kY3vsqE
2008 -The reserve fund. The oldest money market fund. At the time, many of my clients were nervous and we went to cash early in the year . We thought we were waiting out the fire storm in the market through this stable money market fund. When they froze withdrawals and pulled back the covers, I couldn't believe what they were investing in. Lehman commercial paper? We eventually got back 99 % of the funds. It pretty much sucked for me at the time but it instilled that all these analyst, talking heads on CNBC and investment gurus never take a 100 foot step back (looking at a battlefield from a high point) and see what is happening. Lesson learned.
I have to say, Rickards' comments on the Genius Act and lack of regulation of stablecoin issuers are wildly inaccurate.
He says issuers 'can buy anything.'. Nope, dollars or treasuries.
He says they are unregulated. Nope, annual audits, monthly disclosures of the composition of assets, and complete segregation from operating funds.
He says governments are not selling US Treasuries. Nope. China has gone from $1.35 trillion to $756 billion over the past 10 years. Russia isn't buying any for understandable reasons. Japan and the UK have taken up some of this slack, but nowhere near enough to offset the increased supply.
The interviewer called him on this at one point. 'Wait, I've heard that Central Banks now own more gold than US Treasuries.'. He then had to back down a bit.
He made these false claims in an effort to rebut Putin's assertion that the Genius Act is an effort to prop up the Treasury market now that foreign governments are selling. Rickards failed; Putin's right. This is exactly what the Genius Act is.
Anyone familiar with Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake theory knows what the Genius Act is. It's an effort to cause the dollar to soak up all the liquidity, leaving none for other currencies.
Show me Tether's "annual audit" - independent audit of its reserves. Not attestation. Audit.
Issuers CAN buy anything when there isn't any checks and balances.
The Genius Act just passed. No one has been audited pursuant to that yet, but they will. If memory serves, they'll be subject to Genius Act audit requirements within 120 after the regs (not the statute) are promulgated. Rickards wasn't limiting his comments to the past or even suggesting imminent collapse before the Genius Act kicks in.
I'll get to Tether in a second. Circle is the second largest issuer of stablecoins (USDC). They've had annual audits since 2018 (as well as monthly attestations). Grant Thornton was their auditor. Now I think it's Deloitte. Regardless, it's one of the Big 4.
I had the discussion re Tether with Doomberg in his chat when he just started accepting subscriptions a few years back. His position was that Tether would be the next crypto domino to fall. (FTX had just gone bust.) My position was that Tether likely was insolvent at some point when it was intermingling funds to backup Bitfinex, but that it was no longer. I'm pretty sure my position has been vindicated. Tether generated $13 billion in profit last year with 150 employees ($86 million/employee), easily eclipsing the highest publicly traded company (NVidia: $2 million/employee).
I doubt even Jim Rickards would put any money on the notion that Tether is a fraud at the present day, nor were his comments confined to Tether. His complaint was that 'people give stablecoin issuers dollars and they get nothing in return.' That was one part he got right, and it's what enabled Tether to go from likely insolvent to phenomenally profitable.
Finally, I pointed out that Circle (and others) have been audited and will be audited under the Genius Act. Tether? Not a chance. In my opinion, this is because it would reveal that Tether was insolvent when it commingled funds to prop us Bitfinex 7-8 years ago. But, if Tether wants to continue to be a leader in the space, it will have to form another entity that will be subject to audit. Tether already has announced plans to do so.
Sorry to go on and on. Love your stuff, including your interviews. The recent one with Michelle Makori was awesome.
Investing today involves where government is spending their money. As a percentage of GDP, the federal government spends 23% while state and local governments spend 13% for a total of 36% of GDP. That's 36% of a total GDP of $30 Trillion. Those who receive what the governments spend varies from year to year, but that's how so many in congress get rich. They know where to invest, it's in the sectors that receive the money they authorized to be spent each year.
Enjoyed the article and re-watched the movie. But, I'm a bit perplexed by the calls for "more regulations". Have the "regulators' ever stopped anything? It seems to me that if regulations were put in place for the crypto market it would increase not decrease risk. I say this because if regulations are put in place the likelihood for a bailout goes way, way up. To wit, the very fact that the government regulated the market would be cited as a reason why the government has to bail out the industry since it's "regulators" failed
Good stuff, Chris.
Any thoughts on tactical options plays to hedge?
For what it’s worth, I again recommend digging into the pe owned insurance cos and their related party transactions. Similarly clownish conflicts of interest. Athene recently put out some investor presentations, and in one they suggested they were the least egregious of their cohort pulling these shenanigans - pretty shocking to see them call it out.
The bezzle : the inventory of undetected embezzlement which waxes and wanes contrary to the enthusiasm of the investing cycle.
OK along with inside job.2.0 there's also: The Big Short and (my favorite) Margin Call. Both worthy of your time.