It's been a week since Leopold Aschenbrenner went bust, and a whole day since the evil genius of Citadel became obvious. How long do we expect human memory to last?
Chris, didn’t you stop active trading to avoid driving yourself nuts like this? Markets have changed less than you may think. Must have been over a century ago Keynes said “Markets csn stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
I am becoming of the opinion that every market is manipulated at all times and done so with complete government knowledge and approval. this is not a political issue, it is a recognition that every government wants equity markets to rise while they are in office as it helps with sentiment and generates taxes.
After the 2008 GFC, the investment houses were all paired with member banks of the Federal Reserve. Today the markets in America contain about $1.5 Trillion in leverage which has pushed market prices to all time highs. Where would the markets be today if this source of funds didn't exist?
There’s one comment regarding constant Deep State manipulation of the securities markets. That’s absolutely correct and the reasons were also mentioned - supporting paper asset prices and thereby increasing tax revenues and supporting consumer spending via increasing credit creation. Without those props, both federal government revenues, and consumer spending, would implode - taking the general economy and the prospects of the political class down with them!
I just don't see anything on the horizon that is going to cool this table off. Even black swans do not appear suddenly. It us astounding all that is going on and oil is around $80 and markets are hitting new highs.
I began studying the market and how it works 18 months ago. Maybe I am 1/10th there. But I do know derivatives own the show and retail players fund a lot of professional real money people!
Spooky speculation and a crazy mindset..."Instead of investors carefully weighing earnings, cash flows, economic growth"...anymore, why weigh these factors are they can no longer be trusted? I think there is deepening corruption in corporate America and investors/players are getting more desperate due to greed and maybe being overly indebted themselves.
Call options for SpaceX to triple by Friday. What??? If I'm right the float will almost double in that time. And it looks like they just hit an all time low of $104.
I mean.... I like SpaceX and I will definitely buy it at the right price. Which given my limit order, is $70.
Yet looking back at the past 10 years the 50D MA EPS of the S&P 500 is at an all time high. This is actual earnings, not P/E ratios. On 8/30/24 the 50 MA EPS of the S&P 500 was 10.15, on 8/8/25 it was 10.47, and as of 8/4/26 it was 11.17. So long as earnings continue to grow, the index will rise despite all the short term fluctations based on news and political events. Inflation and interest rates have some bearing, but not as much as earnings.
Trouble is the trade is crowded on the way down near term. Puts in the money are like 5 or 6% of the underlying stock price of Nvidia. That's crazy. So everyone's loaded up. Maybe on the calls up but also on the puts down. Look out below. I have long-term ootm puts on some of this stuff but it's scary
The $20 million call buying is interesting. Underwriter trying to avoid lawsuits from a disastrous IPO? There should be a difference between stabilizing and manipulating.
Sorry, but that's a dumb headline about the SPCX $330 strike. Custodians won't let you naked short a meme stock. And a lot of people don't have physical shares yet - they're in SPVs etc. So people want to sell calls on the stock, but they're required to sell call spreads instead, hence the bid the for highest strike option listed.
It's been a week since Leopold Aschenbrenner went bust, and a whole day since the evil genius of Citadel became obvious. How long do we expect human memory to last?
Chris, didn’t you stop active trading to avoid driving yourself nuts like this? Markets have changed less than you may think. Must have been over a century ago Keynes said “Markets csn stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Close hit. It wasn´t Keynes and it´s from somewhere in the 1990s but still aged very well.
Interesting. I assumed JMK said it but evidently not. Somebody traced it to Gary Shilling from 1980s:
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
while Keynes still gets attributed, and I believe he said something similar, I read Gary Shilling is the author of the quote in 1986
I didn´t recall the Name, but the trajectory was right ;-))
I am becoming of the opinion that every market is manipulated at all times and done so with complete government knowledge and approval. this is not a political issue, it is a recognition that every government wants equity markets to rise while they are in office as it helps with sentiment and generates taxes.
After the 2008 GFC, the investment houses were all paired with member banks of the Federal Reserve. Today the markets in America contain about $1.5 Trillion in leverage which has pushed market prices to all time highs. Where would the markets be today if this source of funds didn't exist?
Exhausting is all I’ve got
Jeremy Grantham even at "over 50" -- wink wink -- is sharp as a machine-engineered metal piercing tack. Total mid-career presence & articulateness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKAjxm44C6I
Amazing stuff.
He reviews thoughtfully with historical awareness many themes we kick around here.
As the Bible says "There is nothing new under the sun". Of course you don't know when sunset is for the bubble, that's our problem.
There’s one comment regarding constant Deep State manipulation of the securities markets. That’s absolutely correct and the reasons were also mentioned - supporting paper asset prices and thereby increasing tax revenues and supporting consumer spending via increasing credit creation. Without those props, both federal government revenues, and consumer spending, would implode - taking the general economy and the prospects of the political class down with them!
My main task currently is trimming.
I just don't see anything on the horizon that is going to cool this table off. Even black swans do not appear suddenly. It us astounding all that is going on and oil is around $80 and markets are hitting new highs.
When? Mañana. Maybe tomorrow, just not today.
Until then...Place your bets. NEXT SHOOTER!.
I began studying the market and how it works 18 months ago. Maybe I am 1/10th there. But I do know derivatives own the show and retail players fund a lot of professional real money people!
Spooky speculation and a crazy mindset..."Instead of investors carefully weighing earnings, cash flows, economic growth"...anymore, why weigh these factors are they can no longer be trusted? I think there is deepening corruption in corporate America and investors/players are getting more desperate due to greed and maybe being overly indebted themselves.
Call options for SpaceX to triple by Friday. What??? If I'm right the float will almost double in that time. And it looks like they just hit an all time low of $104.
I mean.... I like SpaceX and I will definitely buy it at the right price. Which given my limit order, is $70.
Yet looking back at the past 10 years the 50D MA EPS of the S&P 500 is at an all time high. This is actual earnings, not P/E ratios. On 8/30/24 the 50 MA EPS of the S&P 500 was 10.15, on 8/8/25 it was 10.47, and as of 8/4/26 it was 11.17. So long as earnings continue to grow, the index will rise despite all the short term fluctations based on news and political events. Inflation and interest rates have some bearing, but not as much as earnings.
various inflations "increase" EPS right?
yup, along with costs and expenses that decrease revenue.
Trouble is the trade is crowded on the way down near term. Puts in the money are like 5 or 6% of the underlying stock price of Nvidia. That's crazy. So everyone's loaded up. Maybe on the calls up but also on the puts down. Look out below. I have long-term ootm puts on some of this stuff but it's scary
The $20 million call buying is interesting. Underwriter trying to avoid lawsuits from a disastrous IPO? There should be a difference between stabilizing and manipulating.
terrorist vs freedom fighter? ;)
Sorry, but that's a dumb headline about the SPCX $330 strike. Custodians won't let you naked short a meme stock. And a lot of people don't have physical shares yet - they're in SPVs etc. So people want to sell calls on the stock, but they're required to sell call spreads instead, hence the bid the for highest strike option listed.