Forward Looking Investing Radicalism
Being contrarian means you are often isolated.
Oh, finance. I could never leave you, as much as I hate you.
An industry full of shitheads trying to sell you toxic products cloaked in faux-academic sounding jargon — and littered with hobbyists who love to pretend their outlook is forward-looking while obsessively staring into the rearview mirror.
Recency bias isn’t just a quirk of the industry; it’s practically the operating system. If something has worked lately, it’s declared timeless. If something has struggled lately, it’s labeled broken, obsolete, or fraudulent. And yet every single document in this industry begins with the same sacred line: past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s the most universally displayed and universally ignored sentence in capitalism. And it’s the reason I have a blog — because most people simply don’t understand that simple concept.