There are some weird vibes that the fire exits are closing, too. A huge chunk of my portfolio is in brokered 1-3 month CDs right now. I just keep rolling them over, trying to avoid buying the insane valuations. I do a ton of research to come up with a list of banks that I’ll buy from because they have strong capital reserves and low risk. Some funny stuff is starting to happen, tho. In the past two weeks, I’ve had three CD orders auto-canceled after I’ve made the purchase order and before the settlement date. One explanation for that is that institutional investors / whales can come over the top of little guys and buy out the allocations before they settle. I’m wondering if that’s what’s happening, and there’s a new and quieter flight to quality cash behind the scenes ahead of some near-term chaos.
In the 80s, 90s, 2000, 401k choices were far more limited than today. Mostly target date options that invested in the indexes, or LT bonds, or cash. It took 5 minutes to fill out the enrollment. And every bad event nuked what one had saved.
I started working at ATT in 1978. By 1987 I had about 100k in my 401k. After the crash I had 55k.
In 2000 I I had 660k in my 401k. By the time it was over, that had been cut in half.
In 2008 it had built back to close to 1 million. The first dump dropped it by 40%. The second dump (which most people have memory holed) took it to 360k.
Those are actual numbers. Lived experience, the same experience that 10s of millions of mid to late Boomers and early Gen X went through during their prime working years. You don’t recover from that, 30 years into a career.
We didn’t try to recover. We said fuck it, took all the money left out of the 401, paid the taxes, bought a lot of gold, and went sailing. Best decision we ever made.
My theory. Without those meltdowns, I’m wealthier than they wanted me to be. So there has to be a wealth destroying event, or events, with enough frequency that people who earned (and could have had saved) enough money in their lifetime to get close to the upper echelon get destroyed before they get there. Can’t have the riff raff approaching the bunker.
Somewhat the same story with the exception in late 2007, actually the day before Thanksgiving, I sold everything I had invested against the wishes of the investment adviser I had at the time, as I had vivid memories of 2001. After the correction had run its course, I assumed direction of our investments. I told my then adviser, that I can lose money all by myself, I don't need to pay him to do it.
Fortunately, with some sound advice and a lot of reading, I have managed to stay afloat, and keep the portfolio growing. I will say one thing I have learned over the past 18 years, avoid investing in anything that is hyped by so many. Yes, the tech stocks are way up today, and I do have money in some of the older, established companies, but I check the portfolio every day, not to angst over what to do, but to see if there are any large corrections. I have a rule that I sell anything that has lost 15% from its previous high since buying in. The exception to that rule is the gold and silver I have stored overseas, I haven't sold an ounce of that for the past 18 years. One other piece of advice that I received years ago, never invest more than 5% of your portfolio in any single investment. These rules let me sleep at night.
All good stuff. I get a sick laugh out of the fact that, in real terms, I probably lost a million dollars twice.
But it’s quite clear to us, that had the GFC not happened we would not have said f this let’s go sailing. Instead, we would have kept working towards our target date of 2015. But when 2015 rolled along. there were parent issues back in the US, and I had some health issues and we would not have left. And as the subsequent years unfolded, there never was a good time to leave. And so what ended up being 15 years of doing what we first talked about as kids, would never have happened.
Buying gold at the prices we paid obviously helped. Living cheap helped. Understanding the mining business and seeing a /00% return in 2024 and 267% in 2025 has helped. And because we completed the wipeout of our retirement account, we have no RMDs to deal wth.
We have decided to move off the boat this fall and rent a condo in a rural area in MI. We will keep the boat for a few more years as an escape valve. And it needs some TLC and we will be 13 miles from where she will be stored for the winter in a heated building.
We have a small storage shed where we put away our family heirlooms and such. We’ve been there once in 16 years. So it will be pretty interesting going back in time.
I do have a 10% rule for everything but junior mining stocks. And my starter positions are never more than .25 of NAV. But I am willing to go to 5% as well, and I don’t trim winners in the mining space. It’s all or nothing. And I’ve had my share of both for sure.
Thank you for sharing. I'm older X and stayed the course after 2000 because we didn't have much saved as we only finished grad school in 1996. In 2008, we sold out in January, down about 10% from the 2007 peak. I could never have imagined the extent to which they would prop up the market after the 2008/2009 crash. We only dabbled in stocks after that, never more than 10% of our portfolio. We've left lots of money on the table if we had just been in an index fund, but we sleep at night and have reached our modest financial goals.
Thanks. We are 63% cash. 20% phys gold and silver. 10% mining equities, 3% shipping, 3% energy, 1% misc.
I just try to keep it simple. Take some over the skis risk with the 10% in small exploration companies, but I enjoy it and I’ve done pretty well the past couple years.
Like you, definitely learned some hard lessons along the way. But we’ve been blessed in so many ways too so it’s all good.
Cash flow covers expenses at the moment. But we are moving off the boat in the fall so our expenses will be going up. And since we gave away almost everything we owned that wouldn’t go on the boat (family heirlooms and antique wood furniture spared) we have a few things to buy in order to live on land. Starting with a bed. LOL.
It should be interesting. We haven’t paid an electric bill since 2011. We did get off the boat for a couple winters and rented a condo as a trial run. But it was all included in the rent so I’m sure I’ll be shocked at the cost of utilities.
I think many of us older folks have a 401K "story". I'm 68 and I got out early GFC too. I was swing trading before work and very sensitive to protecting gains. From 1994 to 2000 however - WOW! So at least ours was lost opportunity.
If it's any consolation, Ryan - projected returns over the next 20yrs from being invested today in the Broad Market, and of course staying in -- are negative. Hussman Market Comment - John Hussman -- has a very compelling monthly Newsletter that is well worth the read and he specifically addresses that issue.
The S&P 500 index isn't going to be accepting SpaceX until it has at least completed a year - so at least these folks have some backbone and have pushed back.
The irony of being your own Market Trader is, when you start out, you know nothing, but don't know that you know nothing... and you have all this money. By the time most traders have learned from enough of their mistakes (some never do), to where they can consistently profit....they have lost their money. Not many Traders make it through that punishing education and come out the other side with gunpowder. My general comments are not to be some smart ass, whatever....but to shorten peoples learning curve from lessons learned from all the mistakes I made. Believe it or not -- the Market is understandable and winnable with the right mindset and tools. I promise. Yes - even in today's Market.
As far as advancing a Market Education....what's popular is not what's right. That's why the education takes a fair amount of time and why I sometimes get frustrated here (that's not a swipe at Chris). You have to be willing to use your independent critical thinking skills and be willing to investigate roads less traveled with an open mind....and, at the same time, be willing to suspend your disbelief. That's a difficult combination to master.
Yes. Get Out. Don't sleepwalk your way into being your own worst enemy. Also - don't say "I'm young enough to ride it out" because you are never to young to get your ass handed to you. Many have not gone through what's coming. That is not Hyperboly.
And, just as important -- don't get back in at the 1st Bear Market Countertrend Rally you see, thinking the Coast Is Clear. You will be presented with very convincing Temptations, several times, on the LONG road down. It won't be a straight line by any stretch.
Study Inverse ETFs like the conservative ones for the SPX....it's like riding an Escalator UP as the SPX goes down -- every single Market environment presents ways to Make Money - even a devastating Bear.
ACTIVELY do your own homework and own your results.
Finally - Avoid crowd consensus. Learn to be a contrarian. "The Crowd Is Always Wrong" is one of the longest standing true axioms in the Market. Remember -- your Financial Planner is an (IN)ve$tor....not a (DI)vestor.
I remember a statement in an investing book from the 1990s on how index funds are just a modern example of the Nifty 50, but their sheer size will keep their boom going for much longer. He figured it could go for 20 years. He undershot the mark.
It's sad index funds are rushing for SpaceX and AI stocks that haven't shown profitability. And when those values crash, assuming they will, institutional investors like pension funds will truly break in a way that can't be imagined.
How do value investors make money while institutional and index investors crash against this hysteria?
What I don’t understand is why these indexes are so desperate to include SpaceX that they’re willing to rewrite the rules to make it happen. This feels like another future “look back” moment that exposes the greed and absurdity baked into the modern financial system.
If this turns into a bad trade, the people who get burned in the long run probably won’t be the insiders cashing out or the institutions collecting fees. It will be regular lower/middle class workers whose retirement accounts are passively loaded into these indexes, whether they understand the risk or not.
Yeah, a lot of money today is flowing automatically into the same names, and it feels like sentiment has been driving more of the conversation than actual fundamentals. That's why I keep things data-driven by using Plugsic algorithm, and so far it has worked well for me.. currently up about 23% YTD. Plugsic's models are built around deep market intelligence, analyzing liquidity flows, market participation, and institutional positioning in real time while optimizing returns through automated volatility strategies.
At the end of the day, what makes the difference is the fact that most people just haven’t had access to the same tools or level of analysis.
Wait, this sounds like a buying opportunity to flip soon after the IPO? Isn't there an upside before it all comes crashing down? Pete did get paid after all.
Sentiment in semi, AI stocks is completely euphoric (from what I see in some of my discord chats and by looking at SA and yahoo finance message boards).
With the SpaceX OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs coming, grifty and/overvalued stocks will go to large caps ETFs almost from day one and price insensitive demand will be exit liquidity for insiders. "known what you own" has never been more important.
Disclaimer: long energy, gold miner and royalties, REITs, preferreds.
There are some weird vibes that the fire exits are closing, too. A huge chunk of my portfolio is in brokered 1-3 month CDs right now. I just keep rolling them over, trying to avoid buying the insane valuations. I do a ton of research to come up with a list of banks that I’ll buy from because they have strong capital reserves and low risk. Some funny stuff is starting to happen, tho. In the past two weeks, I’ve had three CD orders auto-canceled after I’ve made the purchase order and before the settlement date. One explanation for that is that institutional investors / whales can come over the top of little guys and buy out the allocations before they settle. I’m wondering if that’s what’s happening, and there’s a new and quieter flight to quality cash behind the scenes ahead of some near-term chaos.
So true, index funds may blow everyone's retirement dreams up. Sad
Won’t be the first time.
In the 80s, 90s, 2000, 401k choices were far more limited than today. Mostly target date options that invested in the indexes, or LT bonds, or cash. It took 5 minutes to fill out the enrollment. And every bad event nuked what one had saved.
I started working at ATT in 1978. By 1987 I had about 100k in my 401k. After the crash I had 55k.
In 2000 I I had 660k in my 401k. By the time it was over, that had been cut in half.
In 2008 it had built back to close to 1 million. The first dump dropped it by 40%. The second dump (which most people have memory holed) took it to 360k.
Those are actual numbers. Lived experience, the same experience that 10s of millions of mid to late Boomers and early Gen X went through during their prime working years. You don’t recover from that, 30 years into a career.
We didn’t try to recover. We said fuck it, took all the money left out of the 401, paid the taxes, bought a lot of gold, and went sailing. Best decision we ever made.
My theory. Without those meltdowns, I’m wealthier than they wanted me to be. So there has to be a wealth destroying event, or events, with enough frequency that people who earned (and could have had saved) enough money in their lifetime to get close to the upper echelon get destroyed before they get there. Can’t have the riff raff approaching the bunker.
Somewhat the same story with the exception in late 2007, actually the day before Thanksgiving, I sold everything I had invested against the wishes of the investment adviser I had at the time, as I had vivid memories of 2001. After the correction had run its course, I assumed direction of our investments. I told my then adviser, that I can lose money all by myself, I don't need to pay him to do it.
Fortunately, with some sound advice and a lot of reading, I have managed to stay afloat, and keep the portfolio growing. I will say one thing I have learned over the past 18 years, avoid investing in anything that is hyped by so many. Yes, the tech stocks are way up today, and I do have money in some of the older, established companies, but I check the portfolio every day, not to angst over what to do, but to see if there are any large corrections. I have a rule that I sell anything that has lost 15% from its previous high since buying in. The exception to that rule is the gold and silver I have stored overseas, I haven't sold an ounce of that for the past 18 years. One other piece of advice that I received years ago, never invest more than 5% of your portfolio in any single investment. These rules let me sleep at night.
All good stuff. I get a sick laugh out of the fact that, in real terms, I probably lost a million dollars twice.
But it’s quite clear to us, that had the GFC not happened we would not have said f this let’s go sailing. Instead, we would have kept working towards our target date of 2015. But when 2015 rolled along. there were parent issues back in the US, and I had some health issues and we would not have left. And as the subsequent years unfolded, there never was a good time to leave. And so what ended up being 15 years of doing what we first talked about as kids, would never have happened.
Buying gold at the prices we paid obviously helped. Living cheap helped. Understanding the mining business and seeing a /00% return in 2024 and 267% in 2025 has helped. And because we completed the wipeout of our retirement account, we have no RMDs to deal wth.
We have decided to move off the boat this fall and rent a condo in a rural area in MI. We will keep the boat for a few more years as an escape valve. And it needs some TLC and we will be 13 miles from where she will be stored for the winter in a heated building.
We have a small storage shed where we put away our family heirlooms and such. We’ve been there once in 16 years. So it will be pretty interesting going back in time.
I do have a 10% rule for everything but junior mining stocks. And my starter positions are never more than .25 of NAV. But I am willing to go to 5% as well, and I don’t trim winners in the mining space. It’s all or nothing. And I’ve had my share of both for sure.
Thank you for sharing. I'm older X and stayed the course after 2000 because we didn't have much saved as we only finished grad school in 1996. In 2008, we sold out in January, down about 10% from the 2007 peak. I could never have imagined the extent to which they would prop up the market after the 2008/2009 crash. We only dabbled in stocks after that, never more than 10% of our portfolio. We've left lots of money on the table if we had just been in an index fund, but we sleep at night and have reached our modest financial goals.
Thanks. We are 63% cash. 20% phys gold and silver. 10% mining equities, 3% shipping, 3% energy, 1% misc.
I just try to keep it simple. Take some over the skis risk with the 10% in small exploration companies, but I enjoy it and I’ve done pretty well the past couple years.
Like you, definitely learned some hard lessons along the way. But we’ve been blessed in so many ways too so it’s all good.
Cash flow covers expenses at the moment. But we are moving off the boat in the fall so our expenses will be going up. And since we gave away almost everything we owned that wouldn’t go on the boat (family heirlooms and antique wood furniture spared) we have a few things to buy in order to live on land. Starting with a bed. LOL.
It should be interesting. We haven’t paid an electric bill since 2011. We did get off the boat for a couple winters and rented a condo as a trial run. But it was all included in the rent so I’m sure I’ll be shocked at the cost of utilities.
I think many of us older folks have a 401K "story". I'm 68 and I got out early GFC too. I was swing trading before work and very sensitive to protecting gains. From 1994 to 2000 however - WOW! So at least ours was lost opportunity.
If it's any consolation, Ryan - projected returns over the next 20yrs from being invested today in the Broad Market, and of course staying in -- are negative. Hussman Market Comment - John Hussman -- has a very compelling monthly Newsletter that is well worth the read and he specifically addresses that issue.
The S&P 500 index isn't going to be accepting SpaceX until it has at least completed a year - so at least these folks have some backbone and have pushed back.
A comment for Traders --
The irony of being your own Market Trader is, when you start out, you know nothing, but don't know that you know nothing... and you have all this money. By the time most traders have learned from enough of their mistakes (some never do), to where they can consistently profit....they have lost their money. Not many Traders make it through that punishing education and come out the other side with gunpowder. My general comments are not to be some smart ass, whatever....but to shorten peoples learning curve from lessons learned from all the mistakes I made. Believe it or not -- the Market is understandable and winnable with the right mindset and tools. I promise. Yes - even in today's Market.
As far as advancing a Market Education....what's popular is not what's right. That's why the education takes a fair amount of time and why I sometimes get frustrated here (that's not a swipe at Chris). You have to be willing to use your independent critical thinking skills and be willing to investigate roads less traveled with an open mind....and, at the same time, be willing to suspend your disbelief. That's a difficult combination to master.
If you do have it figured out -- Congratulations!
Yes. Get Out. Don't sleepwalk your way into being your own worst enemy. Also - don't say "I'm young enough to ride it out" because you are never to young to get your ass handed to you. Many have not gone through what's coming. That is not Hyperboly.
And, just as important -- don't get back in at the 1st Bear Market Countertrend Rally you see, thinking the Coast Is Clear. You will be presented with very convincing Temptations, several times, on the LONG road down. It won't be a straight line by any stretch.
Study Inverse ETFs like the conservative ones for the SPX....it's like riding an Escalator UP as the SPX goes down -- every single Market environment presents ways to Make Money - even a devastating Bear.
ACTIVELY do your own homework and own your results.
Finally - Avoid crowd consensus. Learn to be a contrarian. "The Crowd Is Always Wrong" is one of the longest standing true axioms in the Market. Remember -- your Financial Planner is an (IN)ve$tor....not a (DI)vestor.
I remember a statement in an investing book from the 1990s on how index funds are just a modern example of the Nifty 50, but their sheer size will keep their boom going for much longer. He figured it could go for 20 years. He undershot the mark.
It's sad index funds are rushing for SpaceX and AI stocks that haven't shown profitability. And when those values crash, assuming they will, institutional investors like pension funds will truly break in a way that can't be imagined.
How do value investors make money while institutional and index investors crash against this hysteria?
What I don’t understand is why these indexes are so desperate to include SpaceX that they’re willing to rewrite the rules to make it happen. This feels like another future “look back” moment that exposes the greed and absurdity baked into the modern financial system.
If this turns into a bad trade, the people who get burned in the long run probably won’t be the insiders cashing out or the institutions collecting fees. It will be regular lower/middle class workers whose retirement accounts are passively loaded into these indexes, whether they understand the risk or not.
They keep saying just follow the herd. I keep asking "Do you know what ranchers keep large herds for in the end?"
"This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations."
Bloody hell. That's worse than stinkface. FFS that sounds nearly like legal highway robbery. Most people will have no idea.
Yeah, a lot of money today is flowing automatically into the same names, and it feels like sentiment has been driving more of the conversation than actual fundamentals. That's why I keep things data-driven by using Plugsic algorithm, and so far it has worked well for me.. currently up about 23% YTD. Plugsic's models are built around deep market intelligence, analyzing liquidity flows, market participation, and institutional positioning in real time while optimizing returns through automated volatility strategies.
At the end of the day, what makes the difference is the fact that most people just haven’t had access to the same tools or level of analysis.
This is a fantastic article along these same lines. https://institutional.rbcgam.com/en/us/research-insights/article/the-index-trap/detail
I cant differentiate which side is gorging themselves here. Disgusting.
You really can’t warn us too much about this gathering shot storm.
Wait, this sounds like a buying opportunity to flip soon after the IPO? Isn't there an upside before it all comes crashing down? Pete did get paid after all.
Sentiment in semi, AI stocks is completely euphoric (from what I see in some of my discord chats and by looking at SA and yahoo finance message boards).
With the SpaceX OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs coming, grifty and/overvalued stocks will go to large caps ETFs almost from day one and price insensitive demand will be exit liquidity for insiders. "known what you own" has never been more important.
Disclaimer: long energy, gold miner and royalties, REITs, preferreds.