Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower
"...downward revisions show an even weaker economy combined with a report that people can no longer trust."
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
Current Trends
The jobs report showed a very modest increase of 50k jobs in December This followed an estimated loss of 173k jobs in October and only 56k jobs added in November. The Household Survey report was actually much higher at 232k jobs for the month of December.
Figure: 1 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is significantly higher due to the data anomaly in January. This was a one-time event, but the Household Report has been over performing this year. March, April, June, August, September, November, and December all saw beats by the Household Survey. Not all of these were beats at the time, but the downward revisions of the Headline Report have been severe enough to create the underperformance.
Figure: 2 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In December, the BLS assumed a loss of 67k jobs which is on top of a loss of 125k for the baseline number.
Figure: 3 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is a positive 1.15M against negative actuals of -633k. This means all positive growth YTD is directly tied to the birth/death assumptions.
Figure: 4 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
Digging Into the Headline Report
Unfortunately, despite being highly unreliable, the Headline report is the best data we have for the more recent periods. Furthermore, this is the data the Fed uses to shape its policy. The 50k jobs number was accompanied by a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
Figure: 7 Change by sector
Jobs by Category
When looking at the last 12-month trend, only 3 of the categories were actually above trend with 5 below.
Figure: 8 Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Figure: 9 Labor Market Detail
Revisions
This is the biggest story of the jobs report. Every single month in 2025 has seen negative revisions. This destroys the credibility and integrity of the report. Several months saw massive downward revisions such as March, May, June, August, and now November. Revisions cut the numbers in half or even brought the job growth negative.
Figure: 10 Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 59k per month and revised lower by 80.7k over the last three months!
Figure: 11 Revisions
More Detail in the Household Survey
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that full-time jobs were gained while part-time were lost
Figure: 13 Full Time vs Part Time
Historical Perspective
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure: 14 Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.4%.
Figure: 15 Labor Market Distribution
Conclusion
The jobs revisions have gotten so bad that even Jerome Powell has said something about it. In the report last month, the QCEW showed an even more dire picture. Not only are the reports weak, but the downward revisions show an even weaker economy combined with a report that people can no longer trust.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
I agree the job revisions are real problem, but to jump from the revisions are problematic to the economy is weak doesn’t take into account the current state of things.
We’re in a transition where jobs aren’t the clean signal they used to be. A lot of firms aren’t hiring because AI and automation are soaking up work that would’ve meant headcount in prior cycles. That puts structural drag on payroll growth. And if productivity is rising, slower hiring is what you’d expect. So yes, treat the data carefully. But the story may be less collapse and more output, fewer workers.
We have seen poor data collection, analysis and reports from the BLS for years now. Their data collection models need correction and revision, as they are obviously flawed and/or antiquated. I would have thought, that knowing this, the Trump administration would have put personnel in place to correct the issues. Effective fiscal policy can not be implemented based on incorrect and unreliable data. This is a problem both Trump and Bessent need to prioritize.