I live in a popular national park adjacent town, and 2025 was a small business bloodbath. I don't know of a small biz, from ice cream shop to barbershop, that wasn't down at least 50% on revenue last year.
The combination of Fed layoffs and deportations seems like it'd yield a net jobs lost number. That the two factors haven't suggests job growth isn't so bad.
If the government really did eliminate 10% of work force - that would have a big impact.
I feel we have been in a recession for years - quality of living for 50% or more of the country has suffered since 2020.
GDP growth has been driven by building data centers and energy - short term solutions that will not create long term jobs.
I am starting to see AI help my industry that is going to eliminate me relying on outsourcing to attorney's, CPA's and the need for hiring anymore CFP's.
I would hate be a freshman in college today trying to find a career path that might not be eliminated or drastically reduced in the coming years.
Consulting will make a few bucks for a while then will go cold. Amazon says it has an easy to deploy user template to dredge your business records for savings/profit you've missed. If biz AI becomes like spreadsheets a lot of folks will have to find new things to do. But remember when there were whole floors of clerks doing data entry, mailing invoices, updating a general ledger? They all went somewhere.
I like Schiff's stuff but he's overestimating the connection between jobs and the economy. Other factors like productivity, household earnings, etc., are equally important.
I spend a bit of time on Main street in many different locations. IMHO, we've been in recession since '22.
I hope that things might perk up after winter leaves the northern part of the country.
I live in a popular national park adjacent town, and 2025 was a small business bloodbath. I don't know of a small biz, from ice cream shop to barbershop, that wasn't down at least 50% on revenue last year.
New definition of recession I guess. Could it be that the economy is changing? The good news is that state and federal government has contracted.
Don’t discount that we eliminated a lot of Gov jobs which reduces net job growth. And a large number of Illegals left work force so unemployment fell.
Because of the way GDP calculated if we magically balanced the budget tomorrow the NYTs would report “Trump causes severe Recession “.
The slave trade was attacked last year and is slowly drying up and jobs are coming back to real Americans.
Peter is consistently "on the money". Very pleased to have been following his thinking for decades and "stacking" the whole way!
If this is what recession looks like, with S&P 500 earnings on the rise and unemployment under 5%, then not so bad.
The combination of Fed layoffs and deportations seems like it'd yield a net jobs lost number. That the two factors haven't suggests job growth isn't so bad.
If the government really did eliminate 10% of work force - that would have a big impact.
I feel we have been in a recession for years - quality of living for 50% or more of the country has suffered since 2020.
GDP growth has been driven by building data centers and energy - short term solutions that will not create long term jobs.
I am starting to see AI help my industry that is going to eliminate me relying on outsourcing to attorney's, CPA's and the need for hiring anymore CFP's.
I would hate be a freshman in college today trying to find a career path that might not be eliminated or drastically reduced in the coming years.
Consulting will make a few bucks for a while then will go cold. Amazon says it has an easy to deploy user template to dredge your business records for savings/profit you've missed. If biz AI becomes like spreadsheets a lot of folks will have to find new things to do. But remember when there were whole floors of clerks doing data entry, mailing invoices, updating a general ledger? They all went somewhere.
I like Schiff's stuff but he's overestimating the connection between jobs and the economy. Other factors like productivity, household earnings, etc., are equally important.