By Daniel Lacalle, Mises Institute
Global money supply has soared by $20.6 trillion since 2019, according to Bloomberg.
Additionally, global debt surged by over $15 trillion in 2023, reaching a new record high of $313 trillion. Around 55% of this rise came from developed economies, mainly the U.S., France, and Germany. Unfunded liabilities in the United States amount to $72 trillion, almost 300% of GDP. This may seem high until you look at Spain with 500% of GDP, France with close to 400%, or Germany with close to 350% of GDP.
There is no escape from debt. Paying for the government’s fictitious promises in paper money will result in a constantly depreciating currency, thereby impoverishing those who earn a wage or have savings. Inflation is the hidden tax, and it is very convenient for governments because they always blame shops or businesses and present themselves as the solution by printing even more currency.
Governments want more inflation to reduce the impact of the enormous debt and unfunded liabilities in real terms. They know they can’t tax you more, so they will tax you indirectly by destroying the purchasing power of the currency they issue.
High taxes are not a tool to reduce high debt, but rather to perpetuate the expropriation of national wealth. Countries with high taxes and big governments also have enormous public debt levels.
If you thought the monetary destruction we have witnessed in recent years was excessive, just wait for the suffering we will endure in the future.
In 2024, the world has seen more than seventy elections where none of the parties with access to power even bothered to present a realistic plan to cut debt. Governments and politicians understand that they can make any promises using someone else’s money, and many voters will readily accept the fallacy of taxing the wealthy. Naturally, currency debasement leads to widespread impoverishment.
Kamala Harris promises tax deductions for start-ups and first-time homebuyers, as well as families with children. It is hilarious. Inflation, a hidden tax, consumes their earnings and savings, while high direct and indirect taxes absorb the remaining funds. Despite this, she promises a tax deduction that most small businesses will never take advantage of, as they will shut down before generating any profit.
The Treasury expects a $16 trillion increase in public debt between 2024 and 2034, without taking into account any recession risk. The enormous government debt of $35 trillion, along with its subsequent additions, has the potential to destroy the currency. Citizens will face higher debt, reduced access to goods and services, and the ultimate dissolution of the middle class in the absence of a pro-growth plan and serious support for the currency’s purchasing power.
Governments and politicians need the votes of the middle class to reach power, and they also need to erode the savings and wages of that same middle class to reduce the weight of public debt in real terms. When the government says they can print and issue more debt, you pay for it.
The trillions of dollars accumulated in debt will lead to an unprecedented wave of central bank easing, which will continue to include negative real rates and even direct debt monetization. However, they need an excuse to present themselves as the solution to the problem they created. A recession or a significant slowdown will be the trigger to implement the plan to destroy the purchasing power of currencies. However, this time inflation is already evident and persistent.
Remember why governments are pleased to destroy the purchasing power of the currency they issue? It is a form of nationalization of the country’s wealth.
How can governments implement currency destruction when citizens are already upset about high prices? First, they need to silence you. Second, eliminate your options to run away from the currency. Thirdly, enforce the expropriation with the motto, “You may have nothing, but you will find happiness.” Yes, you won’t have anything, but you won’t be content either. Only this time you will be unable to complain. Eliminating free speech and independent media is a key part of this plan.
You think I am exaggerating? If the government really believed you would be better off and more prosperous with their policies, they would encourage free speech because everyone would value their welfare improvements. They need to limit free speech because they know they will make you poorer. Therefore, it’s crucial for you to safeguard yourself against the promises made by the government and comprehend the reasons behind the destruction of money.
Fiat money is just a promise, and the issuer knows they cannot pay it in today’s value. Making you dependent and rendering the currency worthless is the best way to control you. Protect yourself investing.
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Yesterday’s decision will go down as one of the biggest policy errors in US history. It will likely be more consequential than the presidential elections, and most people haven’t a clue.
Policy makers need to seriously reevaluate how we structure our corporate boards and regional fed advisory boards. What financial institution CEO can ethically recommend an end to low rates, when doing so would blow a hole in their balance sheet? How about scaling back the BTFP? The FHLB lending program?
In 2022-23 we actually saw M2 tick down, granted not a lot - but it was actually negative. Well that did not last long as we have seen M2 trend higher again in 2024. Now we will see interest rates come down and we will see people leverage back up and round 2 of inflation.
The baby boomers will mostly be ok - good percentage have their houses paid off and have accumulated enough money to survive.
The next 3 generations are going to be FUCKED. People are not saving, living paycheck to paycheck. I was doing a 401k review yesterday - company with 200 employees. Only 6 of 200 will have enough money to actually retire. Was talking to some middle management people (making $100K+ living in Iowa) - worrying about never being able to retire, the one person referenced having 3 boys and she averages $450 / week on groceries.
When round 2 of inflation comes in the next 24 months - it is going to be crippling.