"A Perfect Storm For Silver": Comex Supplies Continue To Shrink Rapidly
"Silver is showing significant demand and metal is leaving the vault at a rapid clip."
The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).
The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.
Gold
The chart below shows the spread between the spot price of gold and the futures contract pricing. As you can see, it blew out in 2025 (increasing contango). This created the massive arbitrage that resulted in gold traveling from London to New York. When the spread between futures and spot gets distorted, it suggests there is dis-location in the market. Spreads have never fully normalized after what happened last year.
Figure: 1 Spot vs Futures
As shown below, gold delivery volume for February matched what was seen in December. Despite being below the big months over the last year (Feb/Apr/Oct 2025), the delivery volume was still very strong on an overall historical basis.
Figure: 2 Recent like-month delivery volume
As mentioned, February last year was a massive delivery month. The biggest on record and greatly exceeding this past February. However, when looked on a notional basis (dollar amount of metal being delivered), you can see in the chart below that this February actually came closer than the chart above suggests. Total delivery volume last year was $22B and this year it is $17B.
Figure: 3 Notional Deliveries
Net new contracts (contracts that open and settle for immediate delivery) was a driver earlier in the month but completely stalled out mid-month.
Figure: 4 Cumulative Net New Contracts
Perhaps the most important data point is the actual metal leaving Comex vaults. When metal is “delivered” it does not mean it’s leaving the Comex. It means that Registered ownership is moving from one party to another. When the metal leaves the vault, that is where things get interesting.
As shown, last year saw a major influx as the arbitrage trade took hold, but that metal has been flowing back out. In the latest month, Registered metal saw quite a large down move. This metal did not flow into Eligible, which stayed relatively flat. Instead, the metal left the vault entirely. This shows sustained physical demand for gold.
Figure: 5 Inventory Data
Looking ahead to the March delivery period (a minor month for gold), we see a contract that is hovering near the average but seeing some selling pressure with 2 days remaining.
Figure: 6 Open Interest Countdown
With the massive surge in inventory, the open interest relative to physical stocks is actually lower. This shows how much metal has been added to Comex vaults last year.
Figure: 7 Open Interest Countdown Percent
Bottom line, February saw continued strength in delivery volume and a decent amount of metal left the vault entirely.
Silver
While the gold market is showing a futures price that is getting higher above the spot rate (which caused metal to move from London to New York), the silver market is experiencing the opposite problem, backwardation. The spot price is above the futures price. This is actually a bigger warning sign because it highlights the pressure being put on the physical spot market.
Market Signal: Backwardation often signals a strong immediate demand or a supply shortage in the current spot market. The market is willing to pay a premium for the asset now, as the shortage is typically expected to resolve over the long term.
While the gap has closed in recent weeks, it is still there by about 10 cents.
Figure: 8 Spot vs Futures
Silver delivery was down from January delivery numbers, but compared to history, it was still quite strong. January and February are both minor months in Silver.
Figure: 9 Recent like-month delivery volume
Switching to notional values, and focusing on the month of February, produces the chart below. While most of this is price appreciation (less than 200 more contracts were delivered in Feb 2026 vs Feb 2025), it still shows a very strong appetite for physical metal. Almost $2B of silver was delivered in the minor month of February.
Figure: 10 Notional Deliveries
Similar to gold, net new contracts were a driver until stalling out mid-month.
Figure: 11 Cumulative Net New Contracts
Silver eligible inventories are being removed from the vault at a pretty rapid clip.
Figure: 12 Inventory Data
Registered metal (metal available for delivery) is also seeing major outflows. Since September, there has been a massive drawdown in Registered supplies. This is further evidence of strain in the physical market. Investors are taking delivery and moving it out of the vault. If we fall below 50M ounces, then Comex physical supplies will start to be extremely strained. While Eligible still has decent supply, much of that metal is not available for delivery.
Figure: 13 Inventory Data
As we approach March delivery, the silver contract has remained near the average for open interest.
Figure: 14 Open Interest Countdown
On a relative basis, the story is similar: in line with the average.
Figure: 15 Open Interest Countdown Percent
Conclusion
The gold market has certainly calmed down when compared to the activity earlier in 2025. That said, demand remains strong despite the all-time highs in price.
Silver is showing significant demand and metal is leaving the vault at a rapid clip. This is a market in backwardation, facing high demand, record prices, and metal leaving the vault. This is a perfect storm for silver. After the strong pullback in January, we have seen a lot of speculative money get flushed out. While there are still speculators in this market, there are also big buyers with a strong physical appetite. This is going to put a lot of pressure on the Comex in 2026.
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And Crimex responds to the pressure by shutting down, without explanation, 36 hours before the first notice date for March. And the shutdown just happened to overlap the settlement window for March futures contracts. And while nobody was looking Jane Srreet became the #1 holder of SLV shares.
So. If Comex can shut down whenever they want to. And the government is going to put a price floor on silver and then let JP Morgan control the top end, and Jane Street can allow all their shares to be borrowed for shorts to help control the price Silver is never going to 200. Or 400. Or 1000. It will become uninvestable.
We will be lucky to get back to $100. Obviously the top end needs to be high enough to encourage domestic exploration and production. But given where it was one year ago versus today, $100 could conceivably be the number. Miners are printing cash at $100. The good ones anyway.
So silver trades in a range from 85-100 and becomes uninvestable because the upside is capped. Thats what the Treasury wants. That’s what the banks want. That what the Fed wants. And that’s what the MIC is telling them they have to do.
Stabilize the price at a level they can live with, where it’s still economical to explore and produce, but they are not subject to short squeezes or gamma squeezes or other disruptions that send it higher sending their costs higher.
Many will argue silver will be unobtainable. My counter argument is that it will be uninvestable, unless you like investing inside a narrow box.
The answer to me is that it likely past time to start selling silver and buying gold.
The 2nd Comex shutdown in 3 months should be a massive warning. Most will ignore it. But I’ll be selling my first 120 oz tomorrow and buying gold. And I plan on doing that every week for the balance of the year, until something or someone convinced me it’s not 100% a rigged game. I’ve always known it’s manipulated. But I never believed it was rigged in such a way that CME could just shut down trading with no regulatory or Congressional inquiry just because they don’t like the price action.
Right now I’m 60% gold 40% silver. If I carry out my plan for the next 42 weeks I’ll end up with about 95% gold, 5% silver. Seems like a much better mix.
You cannot hate those people enough. You just can’t.
Just when I think I know what all this means, I know I don't.