🔥7 New Stock Ideas I've Discussed Since Russia Invaded Ukraine
One is an M&A target, one is a retail name and two are names in shipping & logistics that I had never heard of.
There have been a number of opportunities to nibble at stocks over the last week - not the least of which was Thursday morning’s 800 point selloff in the Dow, when - at 4:30AM EST on an overnight coffee binge, I told my subscribers that my game plan once the market opened was to sell of some of my exposure to oil, gold and index shorts, in order to nibble at a potential M&A target I like, a retail name that I think is too cheap to ignore and two “falling knives” I continue to catch as they move lower.
I also pointed out one whole sector I think that has been overlooked and will benefit from the Russia/Ukraine conflict (no, it’s not defense).
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I was prepared for the buying opportunity, having just released a quick note last week, detailing a name near 52 week lows that I thought it could be an interesting M&A target heading deep into 2022. The name capitalizes on what I believe will be a coming theme for technology markets in 2022 and beyond.
This name is in a totally different sector than another name I wrote about, in the retail industry, last week, that I also love.
If you had asked me whether or not I was content with my holdings in the retail space over the last few months I would’ve told you “yes”. As I’ve written about already on this site, there’s one e-commerce name that I really like and another big box retailer I included in Part 1 of my “22 Stocks To Watch For 2022” that I also really like and am still buying.
But that was until I stumbled on a valuation two weeks ago that I think is getting too good to ignore. And better yet, it’s in a name that I already liked, but had written off months ago because I thought it had gotten ahead of itself.
It's is a name I used to own in size and sold too early during its run up into Covid.
After it ran, I figured I had missed the boat and that the company’s valuation had ballooned too high for me (a la Walmart’s 35x P/E) to become interested again.
But the assumptions at the time were only half correct: It ran to a high PE for its industry at its peak, far beyond the ~8x-12x PE or so that many other brick and mortar retailers were getting over the better part of the last decade.
I probably didn’t want to own it at that valuation and kept only a very small position in a portfolio I have that I don’t often touch or re-arrange. Then, a funny thing happened. Over the last 6 months, the stock plunged more than 20% from highs.
With the company’s outperformance this year, combined with its falling stock price, it now trades at a ttm PE that, for a business that’s been around for a while and is one of the best in its sector, starts to look like a potential value to me...
There were also several new stocks I batted around with my friend and shipping expert J Mintzmyer during my most recent interview with him.
Last time I had J talk about shipping in an interview on my blog, the two names he pointed out rose 38% and 17.4% over the next few months.
In a two part interview with J, we talked about the future of these names, two additional shipping names he likes now, the future of shipping and logistics during a time of a nationwide supply chain crisis, and his take on the trucker rallies in Canada.
J has earned a BS in Economics from the Air Force Academy, an MA in Public Policy from the University of Maryland, and is a PhD Candidate at Harvard University, where he researches global trade flows and security policy.
Part 1 of my recent interview with J: 2022 Could Be "Even Crazier" Than 2021 For Supply Chains
Part 2 of my recent interview with J: Freight Rates Could "Blow Through The Roof" In 2022 If This One Catalyst Happens
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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I or have owned almost all names alluded to or linked to in this piece. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot.